Biotech Values

[jbog]

Dew

Ok, I got that. Now in your cash flow model, shouldn't the results be reduced by 55%?


msg# 101267


Projecting Lovenox cash flow from the reimbursement liability:

Quote:[The $50-70M figure](wouldn't MNTA be liable for 45% of this amount) gives us some idea of part of the cost that MNTA will have to repay.

Thus, the $50-70M range cited by NVS in the latest Court pleadings is indeed the amount for which MNTA will eventually have to reimburse NVS from MNTA’s Lovenox cash flow.

Based on:

1. 60M (the midpoint of the above range) of reimbursement liability;

2. the fact that MNTA’s reimbursement is capped at 50% of MNTA’s net cash flow from Lovenox; and

3. MNTA’s assertion that it can meet the full reimbursement liability in three quarters or less of post-launch time…

…it follows that MNTA’s net cash flow from Lovenox during the first three quarters post-launch will be a minimum of $60M/0.50 = $120M, which is an annualized rate of $160M.

Note that the $160M figure above represents MNTA’s cash flow from Lovenox net of all expenses except taxes*, and it is a rock-bottom, minimum amount. In all likelihood, MNTA’s net cash flow from Lovenox during the first year will be larger than $160M.