MNTA:
1. How did you arrive at $1.2B as your starting point? For the next 12 months, Lovenox would have done close to $3B in USA. I fully expect Sandoz to stuff all channels quickly with generic product and garner at least 50% of total sales USA.
If no AG from Sanofi, Sandoz will launch the generic at a slight discount to branded, such that total sales numbers shouldn't decrease much in $ terms. If sanofi does launch, they would not undercut their own brand by much, either.
2. Even if Teva ever gets an (unlikely) approval, and even if it is substitutable like Momenta's, they will be way behind the curve on marketing. Sandoz will grab the lion's share of a $3B market.
3. Amphastar is DOA.
4. Probability of Sanofi launching an AG is likely less than 50%, imo. Even if they do, the economics still favor Sandoz/Momenta as Dew so eloquently pointed out.
5. Sanofi possible litigation is unlikely, and likely to fail if it materializes. A side bar to this concept is that it may taint Sanofi's dealings going forward with US regulatory authorities. (especially if they're sniffing around GENZ's door, or expecting favorable responses, in general, from the FDA).
6. I see every reason for MNTA to rise to it's proper valuation once the facts sink in. 1/2 of the analysts on the call are new to MNTA and clearly unable to grasp the consequences. This too will change. (I really enjoyed hearing from the Credit Agricole plant, who only called in to "point out" that Lovenox is dead due to upcoming oral anticoagulants. I suppose MNTA and Sanofi might as well lock the doors and go home...)
"If we don't succeed, we run the risk of failure."
-Dan Quayle
AI
