This rally from the 2009 lows looks more like a bear market rally brought on by Gov stimulus. The Gov cannot afford another round of stimulus.
That’s an unduly myopic view of the world, IMO. Did you realize that close to half of the aggregate sales of S&P 500 companies comes from outside the US? (Among the companies I follow, this proportion is even more than half.)
I didn't track articles in Nov - Dec of 2008, I am sure there were a lot of calls that was the bottom.
There are always some people calling a bottom, but articles like the one I posted in #msg-51844154 were much more numerous in Mar 2009 than at other times. These articles were not merely bearish—they advocated that ordinary people should not own stocks at all because, heck, they are just too risky.
The page-one story from today’s Boston Globe is the first article like that I’ve seen in a while. I consider it a pretty good contrary indicator.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”