Biotech Values

[DragonBits]

I think we are close to a new golden age of stock pickers. For the last 20 years, mutual funds and ETFs have ruled. Right now 78% of stocks move with the indexes.

Everyone in these articles owns a mutual fund or an index, I don't think those are going to give any gains for the next 5 years. And I think during the next five years will we have a serious bear market that comes close to the old lows. Funds can't cherry pick a few winners, they have to be in many stocks. Most individuals have no real ability to pick winners.

Can we have a 3% rally in July, no doubt, we are close to oversold. Is it going to last long, I don't think it will. Can we go lower than 1040 on the SP500, I think we will.

I didn't track articles in Nov - Dec of 2008, I am sure there were a lot of calls that was the bottom.

Cyclical bear markets last a long time, and the usually test the bottoms at some point in time. This rally from the 2009 lows looks more like a bear market rally brought on by Gov stimulus. The Gov cannot afford another round of stimulus.