Intel Corp (INTC)

[morrowinder]

FPG: I am not sure why you are so bent


If you are saying that X86 on windows won't matter for smart phones then yes, I believe this is not an Intel advantage.

I think what WBMW is arguing is that x86 does have tons of programming libraries and tools. This could lead to a performance advantage and possibly help out with power. It also would mean that writing an app for one x86 phone would mean that would run on all.

The problem with ARM is that the different flavors aren't necessarily compatible. Of course that works perfectly for APPLE in that it is the leader right now and has tons of apps and wants to lock you into APPLE's app store. Google sort of addresses this but again different flavors of arm aren't going to work, so you use one version of arm for a droid phone or you risk incompatibility by using multiple flavors of arm. Or you have to bake in a processor check and account for any architecture differences. Which is a PITA.

Under the Intel architecture you write once and all intel phones work. The obvious downside is that there aren't any intel phones yet and Intel is the underdog right now. So honestly I don't know how well it will work. ARM is the incumbent, but it is not as bulletproof as you might think. On the other hand smart phones are a commodity e and processor margins are crap here. EVEN CRAPPIER if you are ARM. So adding value is a difficult proposition.

I think Intel's best shot is to try to move up the food chain and try to create a more expensive niche that does more than the iphone. And then grow from there. But this will be tough. And Apple seems to be doing everything right at the moment and will be difficult to unseat. And they are pretty dedicated to ARM.

So my question to you is this: do you think Intel is doomed in this space? Will you go on record predicting failure? Or do you think they have a reasonable shot. Honestly I don't know because Intel HAS failed in this space before with ARM. I see the logic in using their x86 strength. I think Intel is a really tough competitor. They did after all win the enterprise server market, the NIC market, the hub/switch market and other markets they were not the incumbent in. But they have gone after phones for years with limited success. So make a call one way or the other:)