Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

How Large Is the Anticoagulant Market?

Here are three forecasts from posts on this board that answer the question in different ways:

• A May 2009 article in Nature forecasts $9B of anticoagulant sales in 2014 (#msg-37480173). According to the article, “The growth will be driven by demographics of the ageing population and increased incidence of cardiovascular disease, but mainly by the approval of new agents that will offer substantial improvements over the current standards of care. The availability of oral anticoagulants is poised to have the greatest effect on the atrial fibrillation-related stroke prevention segment of the market, in which the use of warfarin is expected to become obsolete.”

• Bayer (the developer of Xarelto) forecasts $15B of anticoagulant sales in 2016 (#msg-26899903). Bayer forecasts that 55% of these sales will come from new oral FXa inhibitors and DTI’s, while 45% will come from Lovenox and other injectable agents.

• Barclays Capital forecasts $12B of sales from just the oral anticoagulants in 2021 (#msg-26899903).

On first glance, the forecast from Nature ($9B in 2014) seems inconsistent the forecast from Bayer ($15B in 2016); however, on a closer inspection, these numbers may not be out of whack. Oral FXa inhibitors and DTI’s have not yet had a material impact in the commercial market, and they probably won’t until 2011; hence getting to $9B of total anticoagulant sales in 2014 will require roughly a 50% increase during the 2011-2014 period. If a 50% increase in anticoagulant sales can be achieved from 2011 to 2014, then it does not seem crazy that sales will increase another 60% from 2014 to 2016 as more of the oral agents now in development reach the market.

Barclays’ forecast of $12B in 2021 is for oral agents only, not for the injectable portion of the anticoagulant market. (Warfarin sales are expected to fall to zero, so the market for oral anticoagulants and the market for new oral anticoagulants are the same.) For the sake of discussion, let’s assume that Bayer is correct that the split between oral agents and injectables will be 55/45 in 2016, and let’s further assume that the market share of the oral agents increases to 60% in 2021. Under these assumptions, Barclays’ forecast of $12B of oral sales in 2021 equates to a total anticoagulant market in 2021 of $20B. Relative to Bayer’s $15B forecast in 2016, the $20B figure calculated above represents a 33% increase during the 5-year period from 2016 to 2021, which does not seem unduly bullish, IMO.

In summary, forecasts for the anticoagulant market from three different sources using three different dates are consistent and believable, IMO. No matter how you slice it, the anticoagulant market is going to be a very big market indeed.