I already did that in my post where I showed that the 2009 smartphone volume was only 40M and Intel would need about 100M units to make any kind of a difference in their valuation. That's an order of magnitude above a 20% market share.
The 100M unit volume number can come from a number of different markets, ranging from smartphones, to in-car computers, to web-based TVs, embedded sales, Meego tablets, etc.
All they need is a piece of each market, along with the CAGR growth expected in each of them to hit >100M in unit volumes in a couple of years.
I believe the net ASP will be >> $10, since these devices will be much more than the simple electronics they are perceived to be today. A simple television display processor may sell for $5, but a fully fledged general purpose MPU that allows Internet connectivity, 3D and video decode acceleration, and a small PC's worth of compute should sell for a lot more.
>100M in units at >$10 per unit should translate into a multi-billion dollar business. As Intel revenues pass $40B this year, I can see them hitting $50 in another 2-4 years. With the growth in servers being necessary to manage and compute the data being sent to these small devices, I can see revenues grow to $60B a few years later.
There may be better plays out there than waiting for a large cap stock grow 50% over a 5+ year period, but I think all the signs point to this growth potential being possible.
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