Biotech Values

[jbog]

Floblu,

VALUATION
We derive a $16 per share value for MNTA shares in 12 months based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, probability-weighted to reflect the risks associated with FDA approval. We have assumed that M-Enoxaparin will have generic exclusivity for two quarters, while M-356 will have generic exclusivity for four quarters. Each drug and indication have been ascribed EBIT and
associated costs through a revenue mix analysis, resulting in $4/share for M-Enoxaparin, $4/share for M-356, $3/share for pipeline, $3/share for the platform, and $2/share in cash. We estimate an 85% probability of M-Enoxaparin approval based on extensive collaboration between management and the FDA and a 65% probability for M-356.

With this statement from Swan, and Oppenhiemers report today, it seems they are both valuing Mnta much lower than we are.

hmmmm