The damning evidence
You don't have to look too far to find empirical evidence backing up the merits of fundamental analysis. The pantheon of successful investors tells the story. Ben Graham, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, John Templeton, Shelby Davis, Philip Fisher, George Soros, David Dreman, John Neff, and many others all soundly whooped the market using fundamental analysis. They all have different approaches (for instance, Soros tends to focus on macroeconomics), but there isn't a technical analyst in the bunch. In fact, I defy you to name a group of technical analysts with a long-term track record that comes anywhere close to the names above.
The more you dig, the weighter the evidence against technical analysis gets. An October 2009 study by New Zealand's Massey University tested more than 5,000 technical analysis strategies in 49 different countries. The result? Not one strategy generated returns that aren't predicted by chance.
Let me repeat that. Not one.
Don't believe the bluster
So if you hear an anecdotal story of technical analysis glory, remember that a bad strategy can win you money based purely on chance. Especially in the short term. The worst poker player at the table may double up early, but he's best advised to take the money and run.
I believe that investing is also a zero sum game; in every trade, someone wins and someone loses. Over the long run, savvy fundamental analysts take money from technical analysts. If you are a technical analyst and you still have your shirt, take the money and run ... toward either indexing or fundamental analysis.
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