"You have predicted in the past that the Webcams would never work, the snow could stop the building of the mill and they would sink in a cloud of debt, not to mention massive dilution."
I predicted the web cams would not work on the date they said they would... and they did not work on that date, and they did not work for some months afterwards. That failure to deliver occurred even KNOWING that THEY set that date while intending to have it serve as a proof of their ability to perform.
I predicted snow would happen on top of the mountain as it does in most years, which I predicted "might" inhibit their ability to move materials off the mountain... while they were still saying fairly recently that they would move materials off the mountain all through the winter, so that when the mill was ready, they'd ALREADY have a large stockpile of materials to feed through the mill.
Subsequently... it snowed. They haven't yet moved the materials they said they would, and since then they have moved the date when they say they will do that work, from last fall and this winter, to later in the spring of 2010... April, I think.
Cold weather at the mill site DID delay their construction... which is a part of why the work is not done now, in late February, when they said it would be done before the end of the year.
When others here were saying there was no debt, and no dilution risk... I pointed out that could not be true... that there HAD to be debt funding them, and that there HAD to be dilution occurring along with that... and I was proven correct.
As it turns out, their filings prove that there WAS and IS debt, that there is dilution that has occurred, a current risk of dilution in the convertible debt they ALREADY have, and a substantial forward risk of additional dilution tied to their future needs for financing the project.
I have NOT MISSED ONCE on a single one or any of my predictions here...
I still see it as a HUGE problem tied to a MASSIVE RISK... that they will not tell you when the debts come due.
My pencil work, done without benefit of knowing the debt due dates for a fact, shows it is quite likely they needed to begin production back in November just to have this be close to survivable...
I don't see a reason exists to think otherwise... and you can't come up with anything else without them first providing information that they are not...
Doesn't mean they might not find a way to kick the can down the road... but risk increases as they do... the debt growing more over time... while the lack of production digs the hole they are in already deeper and deeper over time...
Still looks to me EXACTLY like the game plan followed at FGOC...
.JPG)