Hi Mark,
I'm not so sure armageddon is awaiting us. I see the future even less clearly than Warren Buffett. However, it seems to me that almost all my life I've heard economists wail about we had too much debt, how we were running budget deficits, or how our trade deficit was troublesome. When I hear people use phrases like 'record debt', I instantly wonder what they actually mean. Are they referring to absolute dollars of debt, debt per capita, or monthly debt service to total income? Further, one needs to know the distribution of that debt. If Bill Gates and Warren Buffett owe that debt, I'm not so worried. If low income folks like me, owe the debt, that's worrisome for the economy.
Generally, if we are going to see high interest rates, it will mean the economy is probably doing well. Now, years ago, when Clinton first took office, I expected high interest rates and inflation. My reasoning was that as China, India, and Latin America all developed, there would be a shortage of capital and natural resources. It didn't happen, instead interest rates plummeted. Now, perhaps, for the same reasons, we will see higher rates and inflation resume. Or maybe not. Diversify, keep some cash, and let AIM work. None of us can know the future with certainty. Will there be a terrorist attack, a world war, a major natural disaster, a political crisis?
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