Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Sub intruder in Israeli waters American or French

Analysis/ The navy is well prepared

By Ze'ev Schiff

Tue., November 16, 2004 Kislev 3, 5765 Israel Time: 01:36 (GMT+2)




The foreign submarine that secretly entered Israel's territorial waters and quickly left upon being discovered by the Israel Navy was probably American or French, experts say. The possibility that it was Iranian, Egyptian or Syrian has been ruled out completely.


The key question is why was it there. There are various possible explanations. One is that it was conducting an exercise, trying to approach another country's coastline without being detected. Another is that it entered Israel's territorial waters by mistake - though this is less likely, since modern subs are equipped with very sophisticated navigation systems. Moreover, if this were the reason, why not admit it openly?

The third possibility is that the sub wanted to survey something in particular - in other words, an intelligence mission. If this is the reason, the question is what could the United States, France or any other country not hostile to Israel want to investigate that its operatives could not discover on land? It could be that this was an eavesdropping operation.

Such incidents also happen on other countries' coastlines, and, in general, both sides ignore the incident, not even admitting that it happened. Israel made no official announcement about the sub, and had the news not reached Army Radio, the Israel Defense Forces would probably never have issued a statement.

Experts are quite confident the sub was not hostile. The Syrians have old subs, but have not used them for years. Egypt has Chinese-made subs that were upgraded with U.S. help. Iran has Russian-made subs, but it is doubtful they could have reached the Mediterranean Sea without detection.

The sub's penetration of Israel's territorial waters cannot be compared to the Hezbollah drone's infiltration into Israeli airspace. The latter was a complete surprise, and it was never fired at. The sub, in contrast, was discovered fairly quickly by the navy, which took the necessary steps to make it withdraw. Those who sent it, and others, can conclude that Israel's navy is well prepared.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/502027.html