The 20-year contract calls for the companies to be paid $1.39 per barrel produced above current output levels. The businesses have said they hope to raise production from the current 45,900 barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day by 2020.
Since the baseline production of this well is tiny, to a first-order approximation we can say the baseline is zero; hence, the Majnoon consortium will effectively be paid a flat $1.39 for each barrel of oil produced. As far as I can tell, this $1.39/bbl is the entire profit pie for the consortium—anything else it receives is considered reimbursement for development costs.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”