I find it interesting that the two [sell-side analysts’] estimates of the terms of the royalty agreement under multiple approval scenario are so different -- 12% and 20%.
The analyst who said the royalty rate is 20% is mistaken; MNTA has publicly disclosed that the gross royalty rate is “high single to low double digits.”
For valuation purposes, I assume the Lovenox net royalty rate for MNTA in the multiple-generic case is 10%; this takes into account the royalty MNTA will owe to MIT for licensing MIT’s intellectual property (#msg-41324486, #msg-33839413, #msg-12685766).
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”