METALS-Copper ends at 13-1/2 mth top on economic optimism Mon Nov 16, 2009 3:20pm EST
NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Copper rallied to its highest level in 13-1/2 months on Monday, as extended losses in the dollar, mounting supply-side issues and economic recovery prospects fed another wave of investment fund flows.
"I think the dollar will keep coming down. The global economy is getting better, and a lot of the big commodity funds and hedge funds are throwing money at these markets right now ahead of the end of the year," said Michael K. Smith, president of T & K Futures and Options Inc in Port St. Lucie, Florida.
Copper for December delivery HGZ9 rallied 13.10 cents, or 4.4 percent, to end at $3.1035 a lb on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, after dealing in a session range between $2.9725 and $3.1170, its loftiest level since late September 2008.
On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper for three-month delivery MCU3 ended up $335 at $6,855 a tonne, another high dating back to late September 2008.
U.S. stocks, seen as a proxy for economic growth, rallied alongside commodities on Monday as investors focused on higher-than-forecast retail sales data in October and overlooked a slowdown in manufacturing activity in New York. [ID:nN16507114]
"A lot of the data we have been getting has been one month good, one month mixed, one month better, one month not so good ... and that's indicative of a recovery," said Sterling Smith, an analyst for Country Hedging Inc in St. Paul, Minnesota. "It tends to be a little uneven in places."
The rallies picked up steam as the dollar weakened, making dollar-priced metals cheaper for non-U.S. investors. [.N] [USD/]
Bad weather in China, the world's largest copper consumer, provided additional underpinnings as the heaviest snowstorms in 60 years sparked worries copper smelter output could get hit. [ID:nPEK129447]
In other news, Chile's Codelco, the world's top copper producer, raised term premiums for refined copper to China by $10 per tonne to $85 per tonne for delivery in 2010. [ID:nPEK158133]
"This is a clear signal that metal availability will be tighter than expected next year, and that the supply squeeze that is widely anticipated in copper could happen sooner than expected," said VTB Capital analysts in a note.
"The increase also suggests that available copper inventories might not be at the very high levels that have been widely reported."
Latest LME data showed copper stocks rose 2,825 tonnes to total 406,450 -- the highest level since late April. Nickel inventories rose 132 tonnes to remain near 15-year highs of 131,880 tonnes. <0#LME-STOCKS>
JAPAN GROWTH
Boosting the economic outlook, data showed that Japan's economy grew at the fastest pace in more than two years in the third quarter. Japan is the world's No. 2 economy. [ID:nT339912]
Zinc MZN3 rose nearly 5 percent to end at $2,279 a tonne, its highest in almost three weeks. The metal ended Friday at $2,174 a tonne.
"Zinc in particular rallied strongly overnight, on concerns over disruption in China, though volumes remain relatively subdued," Standard Bank said in a note.
Aluminum MAL3 ended at $2,030 a tonne against $1,940, having hit a three-week high of $2,033 after hours. LME stocks for the metal used in transport and packaging fell 175 tonnes to 4.5 million tonnes, continuing a recent downward trend.
Steel-making ingredient nickel MNI3, the worst performing LME metal in recent weeks, ended at $16,800 from $16,200.
Analysts as VTB Capital said that should nickel prices fall significantly below $16,000, Chinese nickel pig iron output will start to fall and be replaced by increased imports of refined nickel.
"Nickel prices are likely to find a floor soon, close to current levels, and regain their upward momentum before the end of the year," they added.
Battery material lead MPB3 ended at $2,390 from $2,275, having earlier hit a three-week high of $2,395, while tin MSN3 was last bid at $14,985 from $14,750.
Metal Prices at 1950 GMT Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2008 Ytd Pct
move COMEX Cu 310.05 13.20 +4.45 139.50 122.26 LME Alum 2025.00 85.00 +4.38 1535.00 31.92 LME Cu 6855.00 335.00 +5.14 3060.00 124.02 LME Lead 2390.00 115.00 +5.05 999.00 139.24 LME Nickel 16850.00 650.00 +4.01 11700.00 44.02 LME Tin 14910.00 160.00 +1.08 10700.00 39.35 LME Zinc 2283.75 109.75 +5.05 1208.00 89.05 SHFE Alu 15385.00 125.00 +0.82 11540.00 33.32 SHFE Cu* 52750.00 1570.00 +3.07 23840.00 121.27 SHFE Zin 17505.00 185.00 +1.07 10120.00 72.97 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Additional reporting by Maytaal Angel in London; Editing by Sue Thomas and Lisa Shumaker)
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