I think your estimates are too high that there's a 30% chance this is so overwhelmingly better than pegasys that it takes the entire market. We're all entitled to our opinions.
My comment was that i think bristol overpaid.
I see this as an incredibly expensive development path. If they reach pivotal studies, unless they cut a deal with vertex that's $50,000 a pop more for the SOC.
Everyone is gunning for all oral, no ifn. Bristol bet is that it will never happen.
Telapravir is setting the bar higher with 12+12 i.e. ifn market falls in half. Adding additional orals will aim for shorter courses of treatment.
A huge bolus of hcv patients will be gone by the time a Bristol gets to the market.
So my opinion is bristol overpaid. That doesn't mean i think the compound will fail or is awful.
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