Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MNTA: Confirmed that only a fully substitutable “A/B rated” product counts as a competing Lovenox generic in the contractual terms of the NVS-MNTA partnership. Thus, in the context of the probability table in #msg-41414776 and the valuation discussion in #msg-42166244, approval of a non-substitutable Lovenox-like product from Teva and Amphastar is tantamount to an FDA rejection of the ANDA’s from those companies.

The probability of the above outcome—and whether the outcome is even possible—is, of course, debatable. The salient point is that whatever probability a given investor ascribes to the above outcome should be treated as incremental to the probability of the “single generic” case that is the most favorable case for MNTA.