Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MNTA – This is how I handicap the Lovenox ANDA’s from
MNTA/NVS, Teva, and Amphastar. The table below lists
the various outcomes in descending order of desirability
for MNTA shareholders (JMHO, FWIW).

 
                                      PROBABILITY THAT  
                                 INDICATED RESULT PERTAINS 
                                    AS OF INDICATED DATE  
                                    12/31/09    12/31/10 
 MNTA/NVS ANDA approved; other 
 ANDA’s rejected or no action         24%         68% 
  
 No FDA action on MNTA/NVS 
 ANDA; other ANDA’s rejected           4%           * 
  
 Written FDA request to MNTA/NVS 
 for new analysis; other ANDA’s 
 rejected                              6%          4% 
  
 MNTA/NVS ANDA approved; other 
 ANDA or ANDA’s also approved          4%         14% 
  
 No FDA action on any ANDA’s          46%           * 
  
 Written FDA request to all  
 applicants for new analysis          12%          6% 
  
 MNTA/NVS ANDA rejected                4%          8% 
  
 All cases not included above           *           * 
                                     ====        ==== 
                                     100%        100% 
  
 *Less than 0.5%