Breaking a bit of precedent here, as I post my first weary post...No I haven't dumped my shares--in Madclown fashion--and am not, at least at the moment planning on doing so...But, in my opinion it's going to be a very rocky ride the next few weeks, and after the recent run up, I anticipate a pullback based on court filings today...Namely the MOR, and the request to postpone the deadline for the plan of reorganization:
"On October 14, 2009 the debtors filed a second motion to extend the exclusive filing period to February 11, 2010, which is scheduled to be heard on October 27, 2009. There can be no assurance that a plan of reorganization will be filed by the debtors or confirmed by the court, or that any such plan will be consummated." (Page 9, Sept. MOR)
Now this request can be interpreted in varying ways...If there are significant plans (asset sales for instance), requesting more time has a potentially positive outcome...If the request for time is merely to hammer out legal squabbles and fees amongst attorneys, then it is likely that legal/reorganization fees will continue to rise...This is just my speculations, but I don't necessarily see a second postponing of their plan as a step of confidence.
Further, the 12 million (unaudited) net loss for the month is not too encouraging based on my expectations, especially given the three months of million dollar profits, two of which account for this quarter...Adding September into the July and Aug combined gains of 2 million, we end up with an approximate 3Q loss of 10Million. -which will vary as the 3Q will be much more in-depth than the MOR's, but a loss seems eminent, albeit it is a significant improvement over 2Q losses...
One last note on the weary side...Fair book value is now roughly $1.35 a share, so with all things considered, the PPS, at least for now, is trading at it's value, or to be exact slightly above.
So a rocky road is ahead, in my opinion...But many positive notes are worth mentioning as well...The continuing letters and pettitions for an EC are fantastic, as well as a few other minor court decisions in Chemtura's favor. For now we wait, but not without confidence...Things are improving, though not at the pace many would like them to be...
GLTA, and another nice green day!
