Replies to post #44129 on Chemtura Corp (fka CHMT)

[jaxstraw]

Kidd,

I'm not a pumper and you may be right but a pull back, but it was going to be immanent sooner or later anyway like it has every time we've run up.

The thing is that 1 million in profit a month for the last few months ,although a positive, did little to get the PPS to where it is anyway.

We have never had any kind of run ( although many here have posted in anticipation ad nauseam of one if the MOR is positive) based on any MOR released yet to date. The MOR's have had absolutely no influence on PPS. And I don't think we'll have a pullback based on this one either but rather on the fact we ran too high, too fast like every other time.

The PPS has been run up on continued accumulation by large buyers.
And I believe they were not just waiting on this MOR and quarterly report but have a team of analysts that see this differently enough to put multiple millions of dollars into this so far.
They re looking at this longer term and bigger profits than 25% or so.

Some of the better financial posters here have been predicting some of these write downs, lawyer fees, etc for a while. And I admit, I haven't paid as much attention to these kind of posts as prophetic as they were, although they were there all along.

Like I said , you might be right, time will tell.

[kidmaxxxx]

I hate it when my estimate or opinions happen to play out (at least partially true)...(pull back of course is the obvious answer, I personally prefer consolidation and an overall negative market sentiment for the week thus far...But as I said several days ago, and was heavily ridiculed for it...Namely that given the PPS, the risks are higher...And that I think is what causes major buyers to stop and pause, or to flip after a 25% gain...And when I mentioned that the things were rocky--in other words, that we're not out of the woods yet, I was definitely clear and feel the same way. the biggest problems overall are behind us, the biggest things that can directly affect us still remain...And with the POR dragged out 30-60 days, are are these legal fees going to be spent on developing an effective strategy to exist Chapter 11, or, is it merely so attorneys can bicker back and forth over wages for the next several weeks...Lastly, if the risk has not changed, this news headline taken from Google--albeit small and practically insignificant--should make you stop and ponder:

"Oral hearings held in NAFTA arbitration over Canadian pesticide ban Source: Investment Treaty News - Chemtura Corporation's dispute with Canada over the phase-out of the agro-chemical Lindane headed to oral hearings in September after 8 years of legal wrangling."

Again, 95-99% of things are going terrific, but it's not a done deal yet, and this was and is still my same position...And yes I watched the thousands drop from my portfolio the past few sessions like many of you, but we now have a long time for things to be dragged out...We sat in the .20s because not a DA^^ thing really got done for weeks...And our Equity Committee, which I think will be successful, has not gone through either, so treading water fits perfectly given all that...

Personally, however, I see it as a nice base and consolidation, where we shall launch to 1.50 and higher when one of many strong news announcements are made IMO. Please feel free to analyze or jump all over me like before, I can take it and love he debates, just remember we are on the same team (holding and long with my position)...and feel free to write messages but I can't respond in private so I will try my best to do so in public where I see fit.

And all you chartists...And I'm a huge one myself--though I don't have the animation down yet, things are starting to shape up very nicely for the next move. My advice, follow the docs, read the DD on here, but above all, be patient.
See ya all in Cabo.
-Kid

[kidmaxxxx]

Well Exactly a week later, I hope a few of you if not internalized, at least considered some of the things I have pointed out. This is by no means a post to say "I guessed right." Such postings are meaningless...Now if I were an expert or fortune teller, I would probably have flipped and bought back in at a buck (nice round number to start the next run from :-)). But alas, I'm not an expert--at least not with the market...I'm a researcher before I'm a predictor, and I'm an investor before being a day trader...After all, while I won't mentioned numbers--a loss is a loss--and my portfolio has dropped considerably with regards to CEMJQ this past week...My mid to large cap investments/dividends have hedged them a bit, but I can definitely relate to the frustration or dissappointment of dropping 30-40% in a week.

I'll toss out the same phrase I used previously: "A rocky road is ahead." I stil adamantly believe this, at least in the short term. My only advice, or rather opinion on the matter is to do what your gut tells you...The longer time goes by without any major date to look forward to (as in Nov 4th before), the greater chance of seeing more slow days IMO...This, though I was metaphorically slammed for saying it, creates risk; uneasiness; nervousness; and finally panic. The other side of the coin is just as dramatic: (Here's an example:...An equity committe gets approved tomorrow and a major asset sale is presented to the court for approval.

If there's one thing that can never be measured by charts, press releases, fundamentals, or many other tools of investing, it is human behavior and the incredible psychology involved with each individual investor...The speculation, hopes, external voices, shadows on a wall, Absinthe in a glass, herd mentality towards the bathroom; shouts of fire, and get rich quick. Quite astonishing, really, and what's more astonishing is how many people invest through an emotional medium rather than an intellectual one. Fear caused pretty much every single bank to plummit last winter--some were warranted--many were exaggerated. A 300% return on BofA when they were $4 dollars a share because of the panic sellers and political/accounting confusion.

Yes, a bit of a long-winded explication, I'm a writer and have a bad habbit of rambling at times...Point being, If you're overwrought with anxiety about your investment and you're about to push the sell button before another 10% slips away...Shut off the screen or watch another stock. I followed the earnings news of the Large Caps today when it looked like CEMJQ would have another consolidating/pullback/rocky ride.

Anyway, because of the perpetual pscyological unknown that surrounds the pink stocks, or "Q" ones like this (shrouded in court docs) increases risk, even if the risk isn't warranted.

I already see responses of a typical pullback like xyz date...Or normal selling after a big run...Consolidation etc etc. All of these are likely true to some extent. But all the possible means, in this case, don't justify the ends: which for me has been increased volatility.

So, fellow shareholders, we rest at a buck...Every investor has their own goals and limits...For me, it's trigger pulling time--for buying--and by that I mean I love this retrace because once PPS settles a bit, funds and those who have ridden all the Post-Bk waves, will probably jump along with me averaging up :-). Perhaps tomorrow, perhaps early next week...(As I said, I'm not an avid predictor, but an investor, and yes I do believe there's a difference). GLTA, and use your mind not your trigger finger when investing in any company, especially one that lends itself to higher volatility like CEMJQ...With that, Rendeveax at $1.50 :P.