Chiron, your view is really clean, I think you summarized very well the big game.
However I do feel we may see some intermediate steps before #2 in case #1 fails.
WMI's lawyers have already worked out the 4B, next battle front may be The trust: here the debt was left in WMI, but the value in WMB... very obvious and not fair at all...
It's something the BK judge could also rule in our favour if our lawyers start pushing it hard as they did with the 4b. It's neatly within her "scope" in the BK space.
Only these xtra $B would definitively make A>L and clean the path for a nice BK exit with commons intact, prefs at almost face value, creditors happy and still all the potential value that could come from discovery, the DC suit against FDIC, the NOLs, the trademarks, etc, etc...
Something like this would open a very promising period between #1 and #2 with WMI out of BK, cash in hand, only long term debt, and potentially tens of $B comming from the current litigations.
Out of BK means that large institutional investors and hedge funds could get involved pushing pps with real volume and it would be a nice target for a potential buyer interested in getting the cash, assuming just long term debt and handling these suits against JPM and FDIC. I mean for someone interested in holding JPM and FDIC "by their balls", if you allow me the expresion.
I really think WMI's lawyers will now not just focus in the discovery and settlement negotiations, but in making progress with the rest of claims - specially the Trust's one.
At any rate it will be really funny.
Cheers.