Foreign Correspondence

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Subtle changes under Hu

Hu and the U.S., however, will continue to make common cause in seeking to dissuade North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. Hu will likely be tougher on North Korea than was Jiang because he is more pragmatic, less ideological, and wants to preclude Pyongyang from selling nuclear arms and missiles to other rogue nations or terrorists.

With South Korea, Hu will continue the effort to wean Seoul away from its alliance with the U.S. and to coax the South Koreans into submissive relations with Beijing like those of China's dynastic days. China has asserted that the ancient Korean kingdom of Koguryo was actually part of China, a claim that has angered Koreans.

The dispute about the Koguryo kingdom is viewed by some as the first stage of a wider battle for influence over the Korean peninsula and north-eastern China.
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It would be easier for China to gain influence over a nuclear free Korean peninsula, Hu, therefore, will continue to make common cause in seeking to dissuade North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Even so, Hu evinces the fear of many Chinese leaders that the U.S. is forging an "arc of containment" around China. A scholar at the Singapore Institute for International Affairs, Eric Teo, wrote recently: "Beijing is always concerned that Washington could build an anti-China coalition around its periphery."

The ‘arc of containment’ is to be a ring of missiles. This eventually may force China into a direct conflict with the United States.

In the first step toward erecting a multibillion-dollar shield to protect the United States from foreign missiles, the U.S. Navy will begin deploying state-of-the-art destroyers to patrol the waters off North Korea as early as next week.

The mission, to be conducted in the Sea of Japan by ships assigned to the Navy's 7th Fleet, will help lay the foundation for a system to detect and intercept ballistic missiles launched by "rogue nations."
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Bush intends to deploy missiles in Afghanistan next to China and some of the authoritarian former Soviet republics.
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-Am

Subtle changes under Hu

By RICHARD HALLORAN
Special to The Japan Times

HONOLULU -- The ascent of Hu Jintao to the third of the top three posts in China's hierarchy will most likely cause subtle changes in Beijing's relations with the United States and with China's neighbors North Korea, South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia -- but not on the sensitive issue of Taiwan.

In China, political power rests on three pillars: the Communist Party of China (CCP), the government bureaucracy and the People's Liberation Army. Hu was named chairman of China's Central Military Commission last weekend and, in effect, commander of two million men and women in the world's largest military force.

Earlier, Hu became general secretary of the CCP's Central Committee, the most important of the three posts, in November 2003 and president of China and head of the government bureaucracy in March 2003. In each case, he succeeded former President Jiang Zemin, who appears to have let loose of all but the last strings of power.

Part of the coming changes will be in style as Hu is regarded as a reserved, even self-effacing technocrat in contrast to the abrasive and sometimes pompous Jiang. Hu is an engineer who has climbed the political ladder by sticking to the party line, avoiding controversy and keeping his own counsel.

Those who look to Hu for political reform will probably be disappointed. He was ruthless in suppressing Tibetans seeking autonomy and religious freedom while he headed the party apparatus there from 1988 to 1992. In recent speeches, Hu has scorned Western democracy as a "blind alley" that would lead China to a "dead end."

And last week, Hu affirmed his belief in the authority of the CCP when he lauded "a great solidarity among all political parties, communities, ethnic groups, social groups and all China-loving people under the leadership of the CCP." As one American China hand asserted, he is a CCP man to the core.

Moreover, Hu is confronted by enormous domestic problems, including 40 percent unemployment and under employment, an inadequate system of health care, rampant pollution, a corrupt banking system, inefficient state-owned enterprises, and uncertain supplies of energy and raw materials for China's growing economy.

Thus, Hu may not be so confrontational as Jiang toward America, particularly when China enjoys a $150 billion export market in the U.S., by far China's largest. Moreover, the U.S., along with Japan and Taiwan, are major sources of foreign direct investment in China, providing technology and jobs.

Even so, Hu evinces the fear of many Chinese leaders that the U.S. is forging an "arc of containment" around China. A scholar at the Singapore Institute for International Affairs, Eric Teo, wrote recently: "Beijing is always concerned that Washington could build an anti-China coalition around its periphery."

Hu and the U.S., however, will continue to make common cause in seeking to dissuade North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. Hu will likely be tougher on North Korea than was Jiang because he is more pragmatic, less ideological, and wants to preclude Pyongyang from selling nuclear arms and missiles to other rogue nations or terrorists.

With South Korea, Hu will continue the effort to wean Seoul away from its alliance with the U.S. and to coax the South Koreans into submissive relations with Beijing like those of China's dynastic days. China has asserted that the ancient Korean kingdom of Koguryo was actually part of China, a claim that has angered Koreans.

Hu's approach to Japan will apparently differ from that of Jiang, who stirred animosity during his visit to Tokyo in 1998 by accusing Japan of failing to acknowledge its responsibilities for World War II. In contrast, this week in Beijing Hu met with Yohei Kono, speaker of the Diet's Lower House, and sought to encourage good relations with a Japan that is becoming more assertive.

Hu will continue Beijing's policy of seeking to entice Vietnam and other Southeast Asian nations into a Chinese orbit. "China has discreetly challenged U.S. presence and influence in the Asia Pacific region," Teo wrote, "putting forward Beijing's own vision of Asian regionalism."

On Taiwan, Hu shares the views of Jiang, which is to say that Taiwan belongs to China and China will use military force to conquer the island if people there do not submit. In Hu's presence this week, Jiang said he preferred "peaceful reunification" but that "we shall by no means make the commitment to forsake the use of force. This is a major political principle."

There is no reason to believe that Hu disagreed.

Richard Halloran, formerly a correspondent for Business Week, The Washington Post and The New York Times, is a freelance journalist.

The Japan Times: Sept. 25, 2004
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http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/geted.pl5?eo20040925a1.htm.htm