Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Prospect of war will recede under Hu, say China watchers
By Larry Teo

WITH Chinese President Hu Jintao in full control of the military, a cross-strait war can almost be ruled out in the near term, provided Taiwan does not make an overt bid for independence, according to China watchers in Singapore.

Mr Hu's priority is to strengthen his country's economy and military rather than to tackle the Taiwan issue.

'Hence a war, which is likely to involve the United States, is unwelcome and unwanted now,' Dr Li Nan of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies told The Straits Times yesterday.

'He knows the military must be allowed more time to modernise before it can take on the US over Taiwan,' he said.

There is another important consideration.

Unlike his predecessor Jiang Zemin, Mr Hu will have to weigh the views of his generals in the expanded 11-member Central Military Commission (CMC) as well as those of the all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee before making any military decision on Taiwan.

'He thus faces more constraints than Mr Jiang, who had a freer hand, having inherited the CMC from late supreme leader Deng Xiaoping,' said Dr Li.

'So, if a CMC decision is made under Hu, it is likely to be a collective one.'

Dr Zheng Yongnian from the East Asian Institute (EAI) also thinks war is more remote with Mr Hu in charge, not least because he can test new initiatives.

'China's warning on May 17 against Taiwan's bid for independence could be the first public outline of his approach,' he said.

The sternly worded statement, issued three days before Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's inaugural address, was meant to deter him from using his new mandate to pursue independence.

However, it also offered many rewards, some for the first time, under the condition that Taiwan refrain from any move that would force China into a war.

For instance, China said it would consider setting up a confidence-building mechanism and might give Taiwan 'international space commensurate with its status'.

'Mr Hu has proved to be good at balancing the many factions in the central government. He would be able to also balance the many views over Taiwan and deal with the problem with a cool head,' said Dr Zheng.

EAI's Dr Lai Hongyi thinks a cross-strait war, if it breaks out, could only be of Taiwan's own making as Mr Chen has a record of pushing his luck.

Some so-called 'red lines' that might trigger a military response from China are revision of the island's Constitution, conducting a referendum on its future and changing Taiwan's official name.

'As failing to act on such provocations would be a political liability at home, Mr Hu would have no choice but to wage a war,' said Dr Lai.


http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/asia/story/0,4386,273792,00.html?