Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Joseph Silent]

MTC & PT,

On the SPX weekly candlestick charts, there is a line running from the bottom of the October 08 candle through today's high. This line also bounds our recent weekly highs and acted as tough weekly support that was broken in January 09. This line is also the trend of the 20 week MA.

If this is going to be a long drawn-out bear, I think this trendline means something.

Looking back, we have done a 40-week round trip, from today's level in October 08 to the March 09 bottom (20 weeks) and then back up here again (20 weeks). The symmetry-loving guy in me thinks that there is a good chance that is about it for now.

The 20 week MA is going to **move up sharply,** unless we correct a lot, because in the weeks ahead we will be dropping off the lowest values from the 20 week set. Because I don't know price in the weeks ahead, I don't know what it means other than that the 10 week MA has a higher likelihood now of meeting the 20 week MA. Why? Because the 10 week MA is at around the prices the candlesticks have been in over the past 10 weeks, on average. Unless, of course price screams up.

Just using a simple-minded view, it seems to me that we are near the tail end of a run. The 20 week MA is at 884. That could get even the most stupefied paratrooper excited.