To:SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (14082)
From: Jim Woolly CB Saturday, Jun 8, 2002 12:28 PM
Respond to of 14095
two key factors worsen over time, still pressing gold up
real rate of shorterm interest
now consensus building that FedFunds will remain 1.75%
so 3-mo TBill yield minus inflation minus taxes is zero
it has been near zero since Oct 2001, big big motive for gold
trade gap widening by the month
as it approaches 5% of US GDP, mounting pressure on dollar
big big motive for 15% dollar haircut trimming
I hear you on the care taken to guard profits in miners
but the dollar has a long way to go down
it is now sitting treacherously at 111, below 112 critical support level
I expect 108 will soon be reached for the US$
gold miner stocks are coming off absurd historical lows
easy money is done for sure
after some consolidation over time, however, resumption
miners are not just getting too far ahead of physical gold
they have made up for some absurd undervalue neglect
each factor must be considered
marginal mines are now economical
holding company mines are now marginal
these are 10-fold valuation thresholds imho
more gains are coming in future months
but not quick new doubles
when #330 is breached, when US$ 110 is breached...
GOLD WILL GO POSSIBLY BALLISTIC
then come the $25 jumps Hathaway expects on given days
I believe more big gains are coming
but perhaps not in early summer, gold's low season
quickly arrives gold's high season, which is mid-autumn
my understanding is that gold's high is linked to Christmas jewelry purchases
good luck, good work, good riddance Strong Dollar
/ jim
...You don't understand! I coulda had class. I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am.. Marlon Brando 'On the Waterfront'.
AI
