A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[macprogrammer]

I highly recommend reading 'The Great Depression Ahead' by Harry Dent.

There are two components to understanding the big waves in the economy. The first is 'Market Turns' and the second is 'Magnitude'.

Harry Dent uses a demographic spending model to determine both. Market turns are no longer a mystery. Dent's projections of when the market will turn from bull to bear have been 100 percent correct since 1980. However, magnitude is impossible to project. Too many variables.

The demographic spending model came in handy for me on several occasions. I used it in 2006, just after the real estate bubble had peaked, to sell my house, and again in 2007 to take my cash from the stock market and run.

Our current cycle is almost identical to Japan's of 1990. We are at the beginning stages of a protracted 13 year depression. And the book goes on to demonstrate that current investment methods will not work.

But the beautiful thing is, for AIM investors there will be plenty of bear market pullbacks along the way. Lot's of bounces. So once again, congratulations for being smart enough to pick the right system.


Ryan