Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Toppcats]

Double - If you are correct in that we are now 80 weeks from what would have the ideal Hurst 4.5 year cycle low time-frame, then I would have absolutely no problem with the Hurst cycle pattern. You note that the market appears to have peaked four weeks after the prior 4.5 year cycle low would imply to me that the larger cycles are to the downside all of which will be meeting at the next 4.5 year cycle bottom - this is also consistent with Armstrong who has 2011.45 as the bottom for this current cycle (if the current bear follows an A-B-C pattern then this 2011.45 date stands a good chance of being the point of the final low). While we might prefer that these 4.5 cycle bottoms be identifiable price or indicator lows (and they probably 'usually' occur that way), I am not of the opinion that it necessarily has to be the case. As we saw clearly in 2002/2003 we saw distinct cycle lows represented by indicator and by price representing variations of intra-sector/inter-sector cycling. To me what mattered more was whether or not cyclical price projections continued to hit their projected targets - which they did.

So - Placing the 4.5 year cycle low in Aug/Sept 2007 allows the current time frame to be the first 80 week low in this 4.5 year cycle; this placement also allows for a good fit from the prior major cycle lows, especially the March 2003 low. The October 2008 low becomes a cycle low by indicator and the cycle low now will be the price low which is very similar to what we saw with Hurst in the Oct 2002/Mar 2003 time period. The Aug/Sept 2007 cycle low likely marked the end (just as it 'should' have!) of the primary underlying bull cycle and thus the 'low' for that cycle; that point, perhaps, may have actually been more significant to the workings of Hurst than where we are now. Assuming that the market doesn't collapse altogether - Expect a decent rally off of this 80 week low - HOWEVER - if my thinking is correct, both this and the following (final) 80 week cycles of this 4.5 year cycle will be severely right-translated leading into surprisingly severe lows yet to come for the GM over the next two cycles.

Regards

Pmiles - apparently I'm unable to reach you via this site - contact me via e-mail if possible from your end!