Short Term Trading Member Forum

[DoubleTake]

Bliss, significant new closing lows in all the following sectors in the last two days:

XLF
$DJUSCH (Chemicals Index)
$INSR (Insurance)
$NYA
$RUT
$TRAN and $TRANQ (major drop in the $TRAN)
URE (Real Estate)
XLP (Consumer Staples!)
$ALUM (Aluminum--indicator of industrial health)

This is not indicative of a neat double-bottom test as your chart suggests. However, it could be typical of an 80-week low (now running late). I like your previous chart showing the 5-week cycle lows that *might* be mapping out how and why the 80-week low could complete today or tomorrow (full moon Tuesday/Wednesday).

The following sectors all show relative strength and neat-to-relatively neat double bottoms with the November low. These sectors suggest the market now stands at an important turning point. Many of these sectors will lead in the next rally.

$BTK (Biotech)
$COPPER (turning up nicely!)
$DJUSHB (Homebuilders!)
$GKX (Agriculture)
$RLX (Retail!)
$RXP (Health Products)
$SOX (Semiconductors!)
XLB (Materials)
XLY (Consumer Discretionary--surprisingly)
and yes, in spite of today's fall,
$NDX

Good luck to all and especially the USA!

Double

PS
As much as I would like to think this is a 4-year low, I can't see how any Hurst analyst could reconcile it with the 2002/2003 and 1998 4-year lows. The only way I suppose would be to say Hurst got it wrong--that cycles can delay significantly. But it would really mess up the theory--since we are now exactly 80 weeks past the ideal timeframe for the 4.5-year cycle low. It is interesting the market topped just weeks after the last 4-year cycle low and has been in an ever-steepening decline since.