A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[OldAIMGuy]

Thanks AAC, Re: Bill Miller Article...............

I AIMed LMVTX (Legg Mason Value Trust fund) some years ago and it was a spectacular ride for a very long time. And, it was AIMable too.

I don't remember why I ended that account any more. I'd have to go back and check my records. Bill's a year younger than I, but that photo they had in the article looks like the poor guy's been through hell and back.

Part of my own problem has been that I'm just so contrary that I can't tell if I'm being contrary or not! Maybe that got to Bill, too. Back heading into 2000 I also owned one of the early Sector ETFs that followed the Tech sector. Being "diversified" over dozens of tech companies, I figured it was going to have some immunity to "single stock" risk. I was right and wrong at the same time. Single stock risk didn't collapse that sector, but bubble mania did.

This time the pour-over from the mortgage catastrophe has affected almost all sectors. While the market had been at high risk in 2007 long before the panic set in, it had not been terribly over valued. The 1987 panic that occurred a little over a year after I'd started on my own as a private investor taught me quite a bit about such times. I collected a lot of data back then which all helped this time around. It has acted like a great set of fog lamps on my AIM vehicle. Much of what I learned back then, had reinforced in the 2000-2003 decline, is being used this time.
1) cash is precious and shouldn't be burned too quickly
2) patterns repeat from one panic to another
3) there's lots of stuff that's beyond our control

So, while I'm not particularly content with my accounts' 2008 performance, I know I've done reasonably well planting for another crop some time in the future. Overall the diversification has helped. The income producers in the portfolio have kept the bills paid and given me some pocket change to continue buying. The "growth" side still needs some time to germinate, however. Even so, if we look at the lows of the Financial sector (IYF or IYG or PFI) for the last 65 days, we see that it seems to have put in a relatively solid footing.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?PFI,IYG,IYF
So, I guess there's still hope that Winter will eventually pass, even on Wall $treet!!!

Best regards, Tom