I seem to recall there was someone who stated that the true underlying HR of Provenge in this patient pool was about 1.25.
Yes. You are owed some count coup points. But not too many (at least against me -g-), since I would expect the HR to go up now with the tail events coming in. My guess is the final will come in close to the middle between your guess and mine.
PS Did they give the event count? (among other things it bears on the amount that the HR will go up with the tail events).