Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

HCV: Most Likely to Succeed (IMHO)

[Expanded commentary for several entries.]


The following paragraphs are in descending order of likelihood of success. (Paragraphs 6 and 8 are “catchall” groupings that do not explicitly mention all of the applicable drug candidates within the grouping.)

1. The two leading protease inhibitors: Telaprevir (VRTX/JNJ; phase-3) and Boceprevir (SGP; phase-3). These two drugs have shown comparable efficacy in 24-28 week regimens of phase-2 trials in the genotype-1, treatment-naïve setting (#msg-31190433, #msg-31442799). Background posts: VRTX PROVE-1/2 trials made simple: #msg-29019931; PROVE-1/2 detailed results: #msg-28746843; overview of Telaprevir phase-3 program: #msg-26228377; Telaprevir interim results from ‘107’ study: #msg-28749322; Boceprevir starts phase-3: #msg-29474929.

2. ITMN-191 a.k.a. R7227 (ITMN/Roche; phase 1b), a protease inhibitor that may be even better than Telaprevir and Boceprevir but is still early in development: #msg-28126092.

3. Locteron (OctoPlus/Biolex; phase-2), a long-acting interferon made in transgenic plants that is all but indistinguishable from the SoC peg-ifn products marketed by Roche and SGP: #msg-28786162.

4. Various oral agents in phase-1 or phase-2 trials that use an established MoA. These include TMC435350 (Medivir/JNJ; phase-2), a protease inhibitor: #msg-28785830; R7128 (VRUS/Roche; phase-1b), a polymerase inhibitor: #msg-31218459; and R1626 (Roche; phase-2), a polymerase inhibitor: #msg-28821034. (Note that Roche has two polymerase inhibitors in midstage development.)

5. The “other” interferons: Albuferon (HGSI/NVS; phase-3): #msg-26199740; IFN-alpha-XL (FLML; phase-1): #msg-28837983; and IFN-Lambda (ZGEN; phase-1): #msg-16610804. (I’m excluding MAXY’s Maxy-alpha, which Roche dropped in 2007: #msg-24801678.)

6. Miscellaneous very-early-stage compounds that use an established MoA — e.g. IDX184 (IDIX; phase-1), a polymerase inhibitor: #msg-31043481, #msg-26915921; and ACH-1625 (ACHN; preclinical), a protease inhibitor: #msg-31459921.

7. GS-9190 (GILD; phase-1), a non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitor that has caused QT-prolongation: #msg-24268443.

8. Miscellaneous early- and very-early-stage compounds that use novel MoA’s — e.g. ACH-1095 (ACHN/GILD; preclinical), an NS4A inhibitor: #msg-31459921; and Sirna-034 (MRK; status unknown), a dual siRNA: #msg-12665661.

JMHO, FWIW