I agree and as you say it boils downs to how much the finished good will drop off :
"If someone could tell me, as fact, that the upcoming Q4 will show finished goods dropping off by 70-80%, then I would be tempted to max out the credit cards and bet the farm."
Wel I think it wil drop off by at least 50%, but I am only 50% certain of that ... THanks for the comments and the analysis !