I don't know either. As you note, random events can be twisted into a pseudo-configuration just so that we can feel like we have an explanation, and by having an explanation, some illusion of control. I have no idea if there is actually any manipulation--it is a hypothesis that has some modest possibility of being true, probably less than 50%. It also doesn't matter much, because the ambiguity will gradually dissipate--with RD1 reporting, discussions about a deal, a deal or two reified: then the price will have a clear direction.
NeuroInvestment