Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

VRTX SGP – Feuerstein has committed the cardinal
sin of comparing the treatment arms of two clinical
trials without taking into account the control arms.

http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/10414014.html

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Vertex Hep C Drug Still Leads Schering

…In a phase II study of treatment-naïve hepatitis C patients, Schering's boceprevir achieved a sustained virologic response, or cure rate, after 12 weeks of 57% and 55% in two arms of a multi-arm phase II study that's still underway. Another 12 weeks of observation (for a full 24 weeks) will be required to determine the final cure rate for these patients.

But already, boceprevir has no hope of catching up to telaprevir, which posted final cure rates about 10% higher in its two phase II studies.
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Actually, the SVR rates for Telaprevir in the PROVE-1/2 trials were 61% and 68%, respectively (#msg-28746843), which were exactly 20 percentage points better than the 41% and 48% SVR rates in the SoC controls arms of these trials.

Although the Boceprevir SVR rate in the phase-2 study reported at EASL can’t possibly reach the 60’s, it can conceivably exceed the SVR rate seen in SoC control arm by 20 percentage points, matching Telaprevir.

I agree that, all told, Telaprevir is in first place in this race and Boceprevir is in second (#msg-28837898), but Feuerstein is rushing to judgment about the quality of the Boceprevir data.