I think we are almost "there"...
Not necessarily at the lowest low near the bottom, but at a point from which drift and market uncertainty can dominate the trade for a day or three. I expect we'll see volume taper off from here, along with a drift down... maybe for only a few more days. Good action in the market today, though, to have it up 10% while other airlines were down... that is encouraging... some trading based more on the share specific drivers than the market drivers...
I could be wrong. Maybe we'll rocket up tomorrow... but I doubt it. I still expect that the bottom here will be formed in conjunction with events in the larger market for airlines and oil, and we likely have some more bad news yet to come on the oil front or on the international events stage... that could take it "much" lower. It does seem a rational bet that shares will eventually go higher from here and the risk reward is likely closer to in balance than it has been in a while... which is what drove a sideways trading pattern the last day or two. Still, crazy stuff can happen, and the point in trying to call a bottom isn't so that you can buy it low, but to buy it so low that most of even the short term risk is largely obviated... I expect it is not unlikely shares will trade as low as $0.31 some time in the next day or two... and may drop much lower very briefly... or drift lower over a few days time.
Not much risk in holding some cash and hoping that happens if it doesn't... but some pretty good rewards to be had from waiting a bit IF it happens that way ?
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