Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Inc (NAVB)

[DewDiligence]

The point of the article in #msg-2941629 is that there’s ample controversy about whether sentinel node mapping accomplishes enough to justify its existence. If you don’t consider that a material risk to NEOP’s business model, then you must evaluate risk differently than I do

Mapping suffers from the math of a two-legged parlay. For mapping to be worth doing: 1) You must find something that you wouldn’t have found without mapping; and 2) Finding whatever you found that you wouldn’t have found otherwise has to make a difference to the patient’s outcome.

When you are betting on a parlay, as you are here, you have to multiply the probabilities of each leg to get the probability of the parlay itself.