Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[JimQuinceH]

Zeev, Actually I got a BUY signal on TLT off of last Wednesday's night's close and bought it (long) at $84.02, yesterday.
Everybody and his brother has interest rates going up, soon, and I thought so too, but my numbers say NO (and I trust my systems, more than the general consenus). Although they have only been trading TLT since July 2002, it has some very distinctive (weekly) cycle patterns.
As I see it TLT had cycle tops the week of:
9/23/02 then 14 weeks later, the week of 12/30/02
12/30/02 then 10 weeks later, the week of 3/10/03
3/10/03 then 14 weeks later, the week of 6/16/03
6/16/03 then 15 weeks later, the week of 9/29/03
9/29/03 then 12 weeks later, the week of 12/22/03
12/22/03 then 12 weeks later, the week of 3/15/03
TLT is now down 5 weeks from that last high and I'll bet you, you'll see higher prices in late May to mid-June.

Your suggestion of writing Call Options, is a good one, however, at the moment, the Call premiums are kind of puny.

Another thing the Interest Rate equivalent of this index was about 4% in mid-March, now it is about 4 1/2%, so the market has priced in a 1/2% rise, for an expected 1/4% rise in short term rates, a bit of an overshoot,in my opinion.

Jim