chrome - i'm going to have to disagree with about all of your points. although i think fiber will eventually replace our copper infrastructure i don't think it will surpass the percentage of copper in use for many, many years.
i have a friend that installs both twisted pair copper and fiber. i have had many conversations with him. although he is not in the pricing end of that business he did tell me fiber is much more expensive to buy and more labor intensive to lay and splice. and that's for new construction. add the cost of dismantling the exisitng copper to replace it with fiber and the costs skyrocket.
now if somebody is building a new home or office building and wants fiber instead of copper run into their structure and is willing to pay the extra amount that's a different story. some businesses may choose to do that but i doubt the home industry will see much of that for some time to come. after all, for the common consumer fiber isn't going to add a thing to the functionality of their home. i'm sure, given the choice, home buyers would opt to upgrade their kitchen cabinets or carpet rather than upgrade from copper to fiber. ( i'm speaking on this topic as someone who has been in the home building industry for some time. )
now your statement of " Your second contention is that FTTH is not going to be the solution because NVEI's broadband solution will use the existing twisted-pair network and thus be much, much cheaper to deploy. Obviously, this contention falls into the realm of speculation. " is ludicrous at best. here's the statement that is included at the bottom of every NVEI pr to prove my point.
" New Visual Corporation is pioneering the development of a proprietary broadband transmission technology with the mission to utilize existing copper telecommunications infrastructure to deliver video, voice and data at unprecedented transfer rates. "
in conclusion, if your point is that fiber to the home will eventually become a viable business sector i'll agree with you. but if your contention is that FTTH will suplant or even diminish NVEI's technology at this point and time then i couldn't disagree with you more. the simple fact remains that most telcos have been beaten and battered as of late. alot of them also have miles and miles of dark fiber they cannot use at this time. if someone comes up with a last mile solution ( let's say NVEI ) whereas the telecoms can not only use their existing twisted pair infrastructue but create enough demand they are able to light up all of their dark fiber it's not hard to envision them being VERY interested in that technology.
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