I'll take a stab at it.
Remember we're all just guessing based on what mnta is telling us and past experience with fda. Based on your framing the exercise as within the next 9-12 months:
Case 1: 20%, $40
Case 2 10%, $10
Case 3: 70%, $15
Case 4: 0%, $8
Comments
Case 2: everyone is approved sets the stage for additional generic approvals (others have filed but not under paragraph IV) and price erosion and Sandoz get no real advantage or return using mnta technology. Its clearly a blow to mnta if others are approved. Price est is for everyone being approved at the same time.
Case 2 vs case 1: will give mnta 2X odds on being the sole. Can't dismiss teva so easily.
Case 3: comment one, it's status quo, so price est is based on market considerations or noise on the filing, copaxone or M118. Comment two, I don't think anyone will be approved in the next 9-12 months, so only a 30% chance versus the others est of 75-100%.
Case 4: seems highly unlikely, certainly within the next year, hence 0%.
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