Wes, I am not quite as Bearish at this point; meaning I am not looking for a "Multiple Bear for Years to Come"....as yet. My work suggests that we are in the early stages of Wave C of a LARGE A-B-C Correction that started in March of 2000. Wave-A went from March of 2000 to October of 2002 in the SPX. Wave-B was a 50% Retracement in "roughly" both TIME and PRICE at 1163 in the SPX. Until the SPX takes out 1163 to the Upside, which needs to happen in the very near future, I have to allow the current decline to be counted as Wave-C "unfolding". If the SPX takes out 1163 in the next several weeks, then I am SOLIDLY in the CAMP that October of 2002 was a MAJOR LOW; and the recent correction was Wave-(iv) of 1 of Intermediate Degree.
However, if in the next few weeks the SPX moves back below 1087, then we will see 582 in the SPX by Novemebr 19th of 2004 to complete Wave-C of the Larger A-B-C since March of 2000. IF after the SPX hits 582, it is "unable" to rally past 769 (the October 2002 LOW); then the Larger Wave Count for the decline from March of 2000 changes from A-B-C to 1,2, and 3...then I will JOIN you looking for further DECLINE in a BEAR Market that STILL has several years to come. SO....we wait to see what the market tells us is really happening. IMHO.
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