CYCLE Analysis for the week of March 5th
To Da Moon!!! What else can best explain a rocket launch move of 150 points on the COMPQ in a little less than a week and a half? As I had hinted towards in my previous cycle post with which this post replies, if 1980 were taken out it would be significant. I also mentioned that all eyes would more than likely be focusing on the Jobs #'s. As it turns out both of these came to pass and not only was 1980 taken, but prior to the release of Jobs data we tapped 2015 as well.
As for economic #'s, we had a full plate to digest and as usual we got our usual mixed bag of readings; ISM was up and PMI was down. PPI for Feb was slightly up, but Consumer Confidence edged lower. Construction Spending was down and mortgage applications dipped. Auto Sales were up and jobless claims fell although the unemployment rate rose slightly. Then we have the Non-farm Payrolls which nearly tripled over expectations and as if that weren't enough, the Jan/Feb Job #'s were heavily revised upward. While I cannot help but feel as though the jobs revisions for Jan/Feb were nothing more than a mere fabrication and an election year ploy, all that matters is what Mr. Market thinks. From the looks of things, this was just what the doctor ordered...
As for economic #'s in the week ahead we have a relatively quiet week. ISM services, Consumer Credit, PPI for March?, Import/Export Prices, Wholesale Inventories and Jobless Claims.
With that said, what can we expect for the week ahead? Well for starters I do not believe we will continue to rise at our current pace without some type of a pull back not being in the cards. While I am no specialist at e-wave counts, I believe we are currently in wave 5 and it is also my belief that we are in the midst of an ABC move up. We currently appear to be in an A of 5 with B of 5 to come. A date to keep in mind is April 16th which is not only Options Expiration, but it also happens to be a Bradley turn date (mini). Other key Bradley dates of interest are April 26th, May 9th and May 17th.
The big question is do we start to pull back sometime this week/early next week and then turn up on the 16th (which would rally us into month end) or do we turn down on the 16th until the next cycle turn on the 26th and continue upward into May? If we do continue to rally into May, I believe the rally will terminate by mid month and while I am currently leaning towards a pull back prior to Options Expiration (possibly between April 7-11 give or take a couple days) it is still too early to tell. So let's see what the week ahead brings before getting too far ahead of the curve. Anyway you slice it we are in an uptrend and I expect it to continue until at least April 26th.
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