Your Economy (No Politics)

[Bullwinkle]

CYCLE Turn for March 24th is a HIT!

What a week we had and as mentioned in last weeks comments with which this post replies I was looking for a cycle turn on or around the 24th and boy oh boy we nailed it to the day! My hat is off to Mr. Donald Bradley, not bad for a dead guy, huh? All kidding aside, the Bradley cycle has been a very helpful tool and a wonderful gift left behind by the man himself which carries on his name. Sir I salute you, now onto business...

The week started out kind of dismal, a lot of geo-political news and events swirling overhead and taking center stage for the last couple of weeks such as Taiwan election recount, Hamas leader killed, al-Zawahri escapes capture (if they ever had him surrounded to begin with) ex-advisor Clarke speaking out about Bush's negligence on terror, the 9/11 committee hearings, renewed concern about Al-Qaeda having a nuclear suitcase device and even an FBI warning to the Texas refineries for a possible bombing alert. Let's just say that all of the bad news that could be put out there, seemed to be out and just short of an actual terrorist event itself taking place. Then there are the economic concerns, namely the rising cost of energy and low reserves going forward. Oil and the price at the pump have been steadily rising along with the price of natural gas and electricity.

As we can now see, it was all baked in and we had no where to go but up or climb the wall of worry as they say (whoever they are). It was either that or a steeper decline, but that was not to be. Not in an election year with a very accommodative Fed running the printing presses 24/7. I had been looking for either a bounce off of the 200DMA or a filling of gaps below the 1900 level all the way down to 1840, but the 1900 level which had put up some strong support held and we never did quite touch that 200DMA before we got some major upside.

This past weeks Eco#'s were nothing stellar, but they were not bad by any means either. Consumer Sentiment along with Personal Income & Spending were up slightly, Durable Goods & Home Sales were also up. The GDP revision stayed the same and Jobless Claims were up slightly (not enough for anyone to care about). Then there was a National Associated Manufacturer's (NAM) report that was very upbeat for the months ahead.

So what can we expect for the week ahead? Well for starters as far as Eco#'s go it centers mostly around the jobs picture as we get Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate. Then there is the Auto Sales, PPI for Feb?, Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI and Factory Orders. I would suspect that all eyes will be mostly focusing on the Jobs #'s. If those numbers continue to be weak, we could possibly dip back down, but I do believe we will remain in an uptrend and the upward bias will remain intact. We have a lot of resistance levels to work through from here, namely the 1980's area. If we can get through that it would be significant in my opinion. Still the land ahead is lined with resistance and it is still too early to tell just what kind of strength this move up has, but that leaves us with something to look forward to and disecting next week.