Repros Therapeutics, Inc. (RPRX)

[exwannabe]

RE: reflecting on the DewD "program survival bias" BS

Let's try and understand this. It a fairly simple statistics point.

Let's say you manufactured widgets. The QA weighs them (with a margin of error, but fair) and rejects all that weigh less than 1 kilo. You bag the widgets and record the weight.

On average, the weight of a widget sold is less than the recorded weight (even though the scale was fair).

This is because some widgets that weighed more than 1k were falsely rejected (and these were all underweighs), while some that weigher under 1k got accepted (and these were all overweighed).

Thus, the final product has more overwighed widgets.

This is really just a straight stat argument. You can question how significant it is, but it is real.