GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[jessellivermore]

GTCB,,,Money,,,DIC,,,Partners,,,and the Future.....

Whew,,,,, It is apparent Wall Street has got its myopic-tunnel lenses firmly in place re. GTCB. They pretty much have looked in the cash box and decided the company's future does not look bright. Well this is a situation where there is a high likelyhood the Street has got it all wrong.

Money....GTCBs yearly burn rate is estimated at around 28mil/year. The recent acquisition of 7mil via share float actually provides about one quarter's running costs. GTCB was estimated to have about 14 million prior to this. Estimated revenue from H AT3 in Europe is in the range of 7mil and might be more. This total is enough to get them till the begining of 2009.

DIC. The more information that comes in, the more likely it appears AT3 will be effective in decreasing the mortality of DIC...and particularly DIC related to sepsis, the most important category. This a rare situation where it appears the pathophysiological pathways...monocyte TNF et al seem to be meshing with the clinical data. A very compelling juxtaposition. I think LEO and GTCB both understand this. For it to turn out AT3 (Atryn) is not effective in this condition would be very unlikely. This is clearly something Wall Street does not understand.

Partners. The p2 data regardless of stated purpose are going to show how effective Atryn is in decresing mortality in DIC. Good news will trigger some form of significant milestone payment to GTCB and put the company in the driver's seat for a lucrative and long term partner, and likely begin the long awaited line up of companies for GTCB's services.

The Future.. While possibly the company might hang on till 3rd quarter 2009 at which time the USA H-Atryn revenues will kick in and combined with the European money could be enough to sustain the company longterm; the more pleasant scenario involves the success of Atryn in DIC. Regardless of the filing date of the p2 data there is a good chance both compamies will know the answer within 6-8 months. If I understand what I have read so the results should be posative.