Your Economy (No Politics)

[Bullwinkle]

CYCLE Turn on/around March 24th

As mentioned in my last cycle post with which this post replies, I was expecting quite a bit of volatility for this past week and we got nothing short of that. As usual we received a mixed bag of economic signals where the Empire Index fell, Industrial Output and Capacity Utilization grew, CPI was flat, Jobless Claims were down, LEI was flat and the Philly Fed was down. As if that weren't enough, throw in some Fed speak, a 2 month late PPI, the rumored possibility of Al-Qaeda #2 man being killed or captured and a Quadruple Witching Friday and we got exactly what one might expect; twist, turn, shimmy and shake.

With that said, we basically remained range bound between a seemingly tame 40 point range of COMPQ 1940-1980. So what can we expect for the following week? Well as far as Eco#'s go we have Durable Goods Orders, New & Existing Home Sales, GDP and Personal Income in the batters circle. Also there is the possibility of another PPI# for February to come as well. Couple this with all of last weeks action (which I am not so sure Mr. Market has had the time to digest yet) and I feel we still have some unfinished business to the downside to care of.

Whether or not we fill the gaps between 1840-1940 as mentioned in last weeks post is yet to be seen, but a lot can happen prior to the turn on the 24th and we do look like we have a date to be kept with that 200DMA. Of course this could all change in the blink of an eye on a news driven event (meant to be read as geo-political or terrorist related, i.e. something of magnitude). So buckle up, I have a feeling this ride isn't over yet...