FebOE Stuff?
Wow, we did NOT want to see 43.08 fail on a Close-ing basis but it did, OUCH. In addition it appears we’ll take out the S5, 42.52, this morning, NOT GOOD!
We made ONLY one trade yesterday but it was for a $3.02 gain bringing our OE total to $29.06, AWESOME! We finishd early and expected to come back this morning with great gains from a GAP up, NOT, and now we'll Open GAP down instead, No Problem-O though, we'll be taking HUGE gains on our Feb43 and Feb42 puts this morning, Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet!
I’d like to Comfort Longs and tell-em all is gonna be All-Right but that’s NOT the case and right now CASH appears to be King, or Gleno’s Guru surely must feel like da-King Pin being in CASH, where do I sign up, LOL!?
The next Seven Days are gonna test even the best of players as Over-Sold indicators suggest da-ST bottom is here, we thought that would be the case once we got to 42.52 but we may have to endure this Discount wave into 15Feb, OUCH! There is No Doubt in our extrapolations that we make a NEW OE low before this OE period is over on 15Feb! This portends a visit to 41.61 at the very least more likely 41.58 is the Ultimate target!?
For those keeping track the Two year OE Pivot is 41.58 which represents the Close-ing price on 16Dec 2005, dats Right, two years of progress being wiped out in just a skoosh over three months!
The peak since 16Dec05 was 32.5% at 55.07 on 31Oct, and today we’re starring da-ZERO line, 41.58, down, pun intended, with nary a chance of any reversal in fortunes in regard to that 32.5% being WIPED OUT! The peculiar thing is that it only calculates as a -24.5% drop when in reality you’ve LOST the 32.5% you gained, Oh Boy more Fuzzy math, LOL!?
Btw ALL, there are MANY Prognosticators and EVERYone has an opinion, good for them! But we be here to make YOU Money and could care less about being Right or Wrong, as a matter of fact, we be wrong plenty of times but being able to ascertain said "Wrong-ness" is our specialty, and being able to hedge said probable "Wrong" outcome is in our Charter! Therefore we go forward every day posting our trades in Real time, many times in advance using price triggers, then add-em up each day, then tallying the Final Numbers to confess for ALL to see the Good , da-Bad, and da-Ugly!
Talking about being “WRONG”, we were convinced yesterday was DeeST Bottom day, NOT! We went into the Close with a 3 to 1 Long Bias Ratio because we thought CSCO would cause a massive Short Squeeze, NOT! AGAIN, we’ll display for ALL to see the lesson of being on BOTH sides with both long/short at the same time (this is in our OE Port Charter for a reason Folks)! Today we'll CONTINUE to take PROFITS closing our Feb43 and Feb42 puts for some Handsome Gains, talk about having FUN and being WRONG at the same TIME, how COOL is dat, LMFAO - AGAIN!
OE Pivot, 45.35, close on 18Jan
High, 45.88, up 1.2% (New High, 01Feb)
Low, 41.61, dn -8.2% (Posted 23Jan)
Close, 42.81, dn -5.6%
Spread, 3.16
PM, 9.4%
We start today with the following Open OE Port positions:
Short positions (expecting the Q’s to go Down), controlling 8k shares
Feb42 puts at 0.565, (QUAD), bought long
Feb43 puts at 0.42, (QUAD), bought long
Long positions (expecting the Q’s to go Up), controlling 24k shares
Feb43 calls at 2.66, (QUAD), bought long
Feb45 calls at 2.03, (QUAD), bought long
Feb46 calls at 0.32, (QUAD), bought long
Feb47 calls at 0.14, (QUAD), bought long
Feb48 calls at 0.05, (QUAD), bought long
Feb48 puts at 2.95, (DOUBLE), sold short
Feb46 puts at 2.04, (DOUBLE), sold short
This gives us a Net Long da-Q's bias going into today and we'll use said Bias to play intraday Short plays to protect our Core positions and to post gains in an effort to minimize our pending losses on Open Positions.
These intraday plays are strategic in nature and will help us post profits that will off-set our losses incurred during this OE period as we HOLD Core positions indefinitely (see below side notes, Pending Gains/Loses)!
DCB (Dead Cat Bounce or NOT)
While the OVER-Whelming pundits, self-Proclaim-r’s, Messiah’s and/or “Prophet’s” of TA, Charts, Fibs & Lies have pretty much Baked in a DCB to Launch from these levels, we expect a Pre-DCB Discount wave to extend Down to the S4, 43.08, and maybe even see an extension to the S5, 42.52, intraday before WeakAsskie Shorts RUN for da-Border and take profits?
We posted Good gains yesterday as we traded in and/or out of Both puts and/or calls intraday and unloaded for same day profits. Hence our FebOE profits increased by $3.02 to $29.06 as we started the day with $26.04 in profits!
These posted profits are impressive but don’t forget we have many wounded soldiers still on the battlefield (pawns, bishops, and Knights) bleeding RED numbers everywhere, especially as we get closer to the OE and the delta shrinks up into a wie, sorry Michelle, small amount, see “Pending Gains/Losses” below!
Those gains are actually quite good since most of our gains usually come a couple weeks into the OE period. Mostly just positioning our pawns, bishops, and knights during the first couple weeks so it’s a bonus to post modest profits already!
Btw…if you don’t play Chess then I suggest you STOP trading Immediately and go learn da-Game, da-Chess game dat is! But don’t stop dare, stay away until you can actually BEAT someone at Chess. Otherwise, as most players who read to learn vs. actual experience, you’ll have learned just enough to lose your SorryAsskie life Savings, Get-it, Got-it, GOOD!
Side note (Pending Gains/-Losses):
These gains/losses will post when positions are removed and/or expire!
Pending -Loss(s)
Feb43 calls (QUAD) at 2.66 – 0.89 (closing $) = -1.77 x 4 = $-7.08
Feb45 calls (QUAD) at 2.03 – 0.20 (closing $) = -1.83 x 4 = $-7.32
Feb46 calls (QUAD) at 0.32 – 0.00 (closing $) = -0.32 x 4 = $-1.28
Feb47 calls (QUAD) at 0.14 – 0.00 (closing $) = -0.14 x 4 = $-0.56
Feb48 calls (QUAD) at 0.05 – 0.00 (closing $) = -0.05 x 4 = $-0.20
Feb46 puts (DOUB) at 2.04 – 3.17 (closing $) = -1.13 x 2 = $-2.26
Feb48 puts (DOUB) at 2.95 – 5.35 (closing $) = 2.40 x 2 = $-4.80
Pending Gain(s)
Feb42 puts (QUAD) at 0.565 – 0.61 (closing $) = 0.045 x 4 = $0.18
Feb43 puts (QUAD) at 0.42 – 0.99 (closing $) = 0.570 x 4 = $2.28
Net gain/-loss pending for above open positions at the close = $-21.04
This pending gain/-loss(s) is dependent on our ability to navigate this OE period with the utmost precision in regard to da-Boyz! Not to worry, we suspect da-OEPM factor will shed some light on da-Boyz and their Footprints of meaning (True intentions), LOL!?
Gain/-Loss History:
JanOE, $10.40 (up 20.2%, $10.40 into 51.85 = 20.2%)
FebOE, $8.02 (29.06 -21.04) (if liquidated at the Close)
For your viewing pleasure da-OEPM 4cast-r says.....?
Date Open High Low Close
1-Feb 45.52 45.88 44.88 45.59
4-Feb 45.58 45.61 44.94 44.95
5-Feb 44.12 44.60 43.16 43.67
6-Feb 43.92 44.17 42.77 42.81
4cast
7-Feb 42.52 42.90 41.52 41.77
8-Feb 41.78 42.25 41.43 41.60
And in da-Spirit of da-Boyz club and their House rules, we remain committed to being BOTH Long and Short at the same time so as to be READY and ABLE to meet-em at whichever lines they decide suits their fancy and at a time and/or day of their choosing (Ohhhhh BOYYYYOYZ, come, and, GET US, LOL)!?
In summary, YOU GO BOYZ and do your thing, but remember this, we got your Back, Front, and any other side you choose to expose as you paint dem dare pictures, I guess Boyz will be Boyz now won’t They, LOL!?
Good trades ALL,
nm
BONUS OE STUFF, Remember – the CLOSING price tells ALL in regard the OEPM factor!
OE key Pivot Points
R8, 49.89, 10%
R7, 49.32, 8.75%
R6, 48.75, 7.5%
R5, 48.18, 6.25%
R4, 47.62, 5%, Now our Primary Bounce Target but we’ll likely have to complete the “ST” bottom first!?
R3, 47.05, 3.75%
R2, 46.48, 2.5%, Pre-Launch Target into 11/12Feb?
R1, 45.92, 1.25%
Pivot, 45.35, 0.0% , Our Primary target to confirm Launch Mode, prices MUST Close and Stay above this line!
S1, 44.78, -1.25%
S2, 44.22, -2.5%, Should provide a Good Buy level?
S3, 43.65, -3.75%
S4, 43.08, -5% , tagged 23Jan and now Serious Support on a Closing basis
S5, 42.52, -6.25%
S6, 41.95, -7.5%, Absolutely Awesome to tag the -7.5% down marker so SOON!
S7, 41.38, -8.75%, Came within pennies of the S7 but I suspect we’ll NOT visit this level until June?
S8, 40.82, -10%
Most importantly, ARE you having FUN YET, I know I am!
FYI - we post EVERY trade in real time and in many cases post pre-trade sell and buy orders with trigger prices in anticipation of our 4cast! So ENJOY da-Show as we rat out da-Boyz club and have a little FUN while we're at it (I hope da-Boyz don't read dis-post otherwise they'll be GUN-ing for us - AGAIN, LOL!
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