FebOE Stuff?
Are we Dare Yet, da-ST-W-Bottom dat is? We ended the day with a 2 to 1 Long Bias and rightfully so since we closed Down -4.3% from the 45.59 close on 01Feb! We also closed right on the S3, 43.65, ok, 43.67, two pennies, palease!
DCB… Yes, you can start Buying today but if you’re gonna play options then I suggest you buy Mar/Apr options? Me Number one stock pick is Whacovia Bank (WB), as it’s trading for 34.00 +/-, paying a 7.5% dividend and should tag 50.00 within a few weeks, COOL?
We do think today will complete the “W” bottom formation but not without a skoosh more down action, but, we’d treat it as a Buying opportunity as we expect a Ridiculous GAP up Thursday morning and CSCO earnings after the Bell today will get things started, for da-GAP up thingy dat is!?
Btw ALL, there are MANY Prognosticators and EVERYone has an opinion, good for them! But we be here to make YOU Money and could care less about being Right or Wrong, as a matter of fact, we be wrong plenty of times but being able to ascertain said "Wrong-ness" is our specialty, and being able to hedge said probable "Wrong" outcome is in our Charter! Therefore we go forward every day posting our trades in Real time, many times in advance using price triggers, then add-em up each day, then tallying the Final Numbers to confess for ALL to see the Good , da-Bad, and da-Ugly!
OE Pivot, 45.35, close on 18Jan
High, 45.88, up 1.2% (New High, 01Feb)
Low, 41.61, dn -8.2% (Posted 23Jan)
Close, 43.67, dn -4.8%
Spread, 3.16
PM, 9.4%
We fell back below the OE Pivot and we suspect once we complete the ST bottom we’ll find a way to get back above the OE Pivot, 45.35, and make a RUN for the R2, 46.48, with an Extension to the R4, 47.62, possible!?
We start today with the following Open OE Port positions:
Short positions (expecting the Q's to go Down), controlling 12k shares
Feb42 puts at 0.565, (QUAD), bought long
Feb44 calls at 1.545, (QUAD), sold short
Feb43 puts at 0.42, (QUAD), bought long
Long positions (expecting the Q's to go Up), controlling 24k shares
Feb43 calls at 2.66, (QUAD), bought long
Feb45 calls at 2.03, (QUAD), bought long
Feb46 calls at 0.32, (QUAD), bought long
Feb47 calls at 0.14, (QUAD), bought long
Feb48 calls at 0.05, (QUAD), bought long
Feb48 putt at 2.95, (DOUBLE), sold short
Feb46 putt at 2.04, (DOUBLE), sold short
This gives us a Net Long da-Q's bias going into today and we'll use said Bias to play intraday Short plays to protect our Core positions and to post gains in an effort to minimize our pending losses on Open Positions.
These intraday plays are strategic in nature and will help us post profits that will off-set our losses incurred during this OE period as we HOLD Core positions indefinitely (see below side notes, Pending Gains/Loses)!
DCB (Dead Cat Bounce or NOT)
While the OVER-Whelming pundits, self-Proclaim-r’s, Messiah’s and/or “Prophet’s” of TA, Charts, Fibs & Lies have pretty much Baked in a DCB to Launch from these levels, we expect a Pre-DCB Discount wave to extend Down to the S4, 43.08, and maybe even see an extension to the S5, 42.52, intraday before WeakAsskie Shorts RUN for da-Border and take profits?
We posted Good gains yesterday as we traded in and/or out of Both puts and/or calls intraday and unloaded for same day profits. Hence our FebOE profits increased by $2.98 to $26.04 as we started the day with $23.06 in profits!
These posted profits are impressive but don’t forget we have many wounded soldiers still on the battlefield (pawns, bishops, and Knights) bleeding RED numbers everywhere, especially as we get closer to the OE and the delta shrinks up into a wie, sorry Michelle, small amount, see “Pending Gains/Losses” below!
Those gains are actually quite good since most of our gains usually come a couple weeks into the OE period. Mostly just positioning our pawns, bishops, and knights during the first couple weeks so it’s a bonus to post modest profits already!
Btw…if you don’t play Chess then I suggest you STOP trading Immediately and go learn da-Game, da-Chess game dat is! But don’t stop dare, stay away until you can actually BEAT someone at Chess. Otherwise, as most players who read to learn vs. actual experience, you’ll have learned just enough to lose your SorryAsskie life Savings, Get-it, Got-it, GOOD!
Side note (Pending Gains/-Losses):
These gains/losses will post when positions are removed and/or expire!
Pending -Loss(s)
Feb43 calls (QUAD) at 2.66 – 1.50 (closing $) = -1.16 x 4 = $-4.64
Feb45 calls (QUAD) at 2.03 – 0.46 (closing $) = -1.57 x 4 = $-6.28
Feb46 calls (QUAD) at 0.32 – 0.23 (closing $) = -0.09 x 4 = $-0.36
Feb47 calls (QUAD) at 0.14 – 0.08 (closing $) = -0.06 x 4 = $-0.24
Feb48 calls (QUAD) at 0.05 – 0.05 (closing $) = -0.00 x 4 = $-0.00
Feb42 puts (QUAD) at 0.565 – 0.39 (closing $) = -0.175 x 4 = $-0.70
Feb46 puts (DOUB) at 2.04 – 2.44 (closing $) = -0.40 x 2 = $-0.80
Feb48 puts (DOUB) at 2.95 – 4.32 (closing $) = 1.37 x 2 = $-2.74
Pending Gain(s)
Feb44 calls (QUAD) at 1.545 – 0.88 (closing $) = 0.665 x 4 = $2.66
Feb43 puts (QUAD) at 0.42 – 0.68 (closing $) = 0.260 x 4 = $1.04
Net gain/-loss pending for above open positions at the close = $-12.06
This pending gain/-loss(s) is dependent on our ability to navigate this OE period with the utmost precision in regard to da-Boyz! Not to worry, we suspect da-OEPM factor will shed some light on da-Boyz and their Footprints of meaning (True intentions), LOL!?
Gain/-Loss History:
JanOE, $10.40 (up 20.2%, $10.40 into 51.85 = 20.2%)
FebOE, $13.98 (26.04-12.06) (if liquidated at the Close)
For your viewing pleasure da-OEPM 4cast-r says.....?
Date Open High Low Close
1-Feb 45.52 45.88 44.88 45.59
4-Feb 45.58 45.61 44.94 44.95
5-Feb 44.12 44.95 43.16 43.67
4cast
6-Feb 43.98 44.11 43.10 43.54
7-Feb 44.79 45.45 43.54 45.45
8-Feb 44.95 45.45 44.18 44.54
And in da-Spirit of da-Boyz club and their House rules, we remain committed to being BOTH Long and Short at the same time so as to be READY and ABLE to meet-em at whichever lines they decide suits their fancy and at a time and/or day of their choosing (Ohhhhh BOYYYYOYZ, come, and, GET US, LOL)!?
In summary, YOU GO BOYZ and do your thing, but remember this, we got your Back, Front, and any other side you choose to expose as you paint dem dare pictures, I guess Boyz will be Boyz now won’t They, LOL!?
Good trades ALL,
nm
BONUS OE STUFF, Remember – the CLOSING price tells ALL in regard the OEPM factor!
OE key Pivot Points
R8, 49.89, 10%
R7, 49.32, 8.75%
R6, 48.75, 7.5%
R5, 48.18, 6.25%
R4, 47.62, 5% , Now our Primary Bounce Target but we’ll likely have to complete the “ST” bottom first!?
R3, 47.05, 3.75%
R2, 46.48, 2.5%, Pre-Launch Target into 11/12Feb?
R1, 45.92, 1.25%
Pivot, 45.35, 0.0% , Our Primary target to confirm Launch Mode, prices MUST Close and Stay above this line!
S1, 44.78, -1.25%
S2, 44.22, -2.5%, Should provide a Good Buy level?
S3, 43.65, -3.75%
S4, 43.08, -5% , tagged 23Jan and now Serious Support on a Closing basis
S5, 42.52, -6.25%
S6, 41.95, -7.5%, Absolutely Awesome to tag the -7.5% down marker so SOON!
S7, 41.38, -8.75%, Came within pennies of the S7 but I suspect we’ll NOT visit this level until June?
S8, 40.82, -10%
Most importantly, ARE you having FUN YET, I know I am!
FYI - we post EVERY trade in real time and in many cases post pre-trade sell and buy orders with trigger prices in anticipation of our 4cast! So ENJOY da-Show as we rat out da-Boyz club and have a little FUN while we're at it (I hope da-Boyz don't read dis-post otherwise they'll be GUN-ing for us - AGAIN, LOL!
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