FebOE Stuff?
Ok, As expected, we couldn’t stay above the OE Pivot, 45.35, on a closing basis and we look to be heading back down to back-test the S2, 44.22, to compete the ST Bottom (Nice Picture Painting none-the-less Boyz)? We’ll NOT wait for the S2, 44.22, marker though as we’ll be using action at the S1, 44.78, to Add Longs!
We did add long positions to get our bias to a less short one, a 1.2 to 1 short ratio, down from a 3 to 1 ratio, and we’ve pretty much got the Q’s trapped between 44.75/45.25 at the close on Monday.
We’ll continue to Unwind and play intraday plays Today and into the close on Wednesday at which point we’ll have a Long Bias in anticipation of CSCO earnings after da-Bell?
If we get a Gap Down Tuesday morning we’ll use it to add to our Short Feb48 put position to form a Quad position (this position makes money if the Q’s go UP). This will also get us Net Neutral as we’ll be controlling 12k shares on both sides of 44.75 when completed, COOL!
In addition, we’ll continue to use intraday plays to post gains in an attempt to off-set our Core positions that are in the red or taking on water if you will (see Pending losses section below), LOL!?
Btw ALL, there are MANY Prognosticators and EVERYone has an opinion, good for them! But we be here to make YOU Money and could care less about being Right or Wrong, as a matter of fact, we be wrong plenty of times but being able to ascertain said "Wrong-ness" is our specialty, and being able to hedge said probable "Wrong" outcome is in our Charter! Therefore we go forward every day posting our trades in Real time,, many times in advance using price triggers, then add-em up each day, then tallying the Final Numbers to confess for ALL to see the Good , da-Bad, and da-Ugly!
Now who amongst us can step forward to Challenge us in such an endeavor, ANYONE (and I'm not talking about After da-Fact BS, or posting Four different scenarios and conveniently forgetting the three dat didn't pan out and reposting the one da did, Palease), dats what I thought, Carry on Worthy Opponents but know that we be hear to rat out da-Boyz and have a little FUN while we do it, LOL!?
OE Pivot, 45.35, close on 18Jan
High, 45.88, up 1.2% (New High, 01Feb)
Low, 41.61, dn -8.2% (Posted 23Jan)
Close, 44.95, dn -0.9%
Spread, 3.16
PM, 9.4%
We fell back below the OE Pivot and we suspect once we complete the ST bottom we’ll find a way to get back above the OE Pivot, 45.35, and make a RUN for the R2, 46.48, with an Extension to the R4, 47.62, possible!?
We start today with the following Open OE Port positions:
Short positions (expecting the Q's to go Down), controlling 12k shares
Feb42 puts at 0.565, (QUAD), bought long
Feb47 puts at 2.685, (QUAD), bought long
Feb44 calls at 1.545, (QUAD), sold short
Long positions (expecting the Q's to go Up), controlling 10k shares
Feb45 calls at 2.03, (QUAD), bought long
Feb43 calls at 2.66, (QUAD), bought long
Feb48 putt at 2.95, (DOUBLE), sold short
This gives us a Net Short da-Q's bias going into today and we'll use said Bias to play intraday Short plays to protect our Core positions and to post gains in an effort to minimize our pending losses on Open Positions.
These intraday plays are strategic in nature and will help us post profits that will off-set our losses incurred during this OE period as we HOLD Core positions indefinitely (see below side notes, Pending Gains/Loses)!
DCB (Dead Cat Bounce or NOT)
While the OVER-Whelming pundits, self-Proclaim-r’s, Messiah’s and/or “Prophet’s” of TA, Charts, Fibs & Lies have pretty much Baked in a DCB to Launch from these levels, they’ve pretty much been disappointed time and time again! Well, we’ll be posting a “Special ST Bottom ALERT” before da-Bell and giving some specific plays one might make if one expects a DCB of Meaning so watch for it?
We posted meager gains yesterday as we traded in and/or out of Both puts and/or calls intraday and unloaded for same day profits. Hence our FebOE profits increased by $0.76 to $23.06 as we started the day with $22.30 in profits!
These posted profits are impressive but don’t forget we have many wounded soldiers still on the battlefield (pawns, bishops, and Knights) bleeding RED numbers everywhere, especially as we get closer to the OE and the delta shrinks up into a wie, sorry Michelle, small amount, see “Pending Gains/Losses” below!
Those gains are actually quite good since most of our gains usually come a couple weeks into the OE period. Mostly just positioning our pawns, bishops, and knights during the first couple weeks so it’s a bonus to post modest profits already!
Btw…if you don’t play Chess then I suggest you STOP trading Immediately and go learn da-Game, da-Chess game dat is! But don’t stop dare, stay away until you can actually BEAT someone at Chess. Otherwise, as most players who read to learn vs. actual experience, you’ll have learned just enough to lose your SorryAsskie life Savings, Get-it, Got-it, GOOD!
Side note (Pending Gains/-Losses):
These gains/losses will post when positions are removed and/or expire!
Pending -Loss(s)
Feb45 calls (QUAD) at 2.03 – 0.87 (closing $) = -1.16 x 4 = $-4.64
Feb42 puts (QUAD) at 0.565 – 0.21 (closing $) = -0.355 x 4 = $-1.42
Feb47 puts (QUAD) at 2.685 – 2.42 (closing $) = -0.265 x 4 = $-1.06
Feb48 puts (DOUB) at 2.95 – 3.29 (closing $) = 0.34 x 2 = $-0.68
Pending Gain(s)
Feb44 calls (QUAD) at 1.545 – 1.42 (closing $) = -0.125 x 4 = $0.50
Net gain/-loss pending for above open positions at the close = $-7.30
This pending gain/-loss(s) is dependent on our ability to navigate this OE period with the utmost precision in regard to da-Boyz! Not to worry, we suspect da-OEPM factor will shed some light on da-Boyz and their Footprints of meaning (True intentions), LOL!?
Gain/-Loss History:
JanOE, $10.40 (up 20.2%, $10.40 into 51.85 = 20.2%)
FebOE, $15.76 (23.06-7.30) (if liquidated at the Close)
For your viewing pleasure da-OEPM 4cast-r says.....?
Date Open High Low Close
1-Feb 45.52 45.88 44.88 45.59
4-Feb 45.58 45.61 44.94 44.95
4cast
5-Feb 44.77 45.26 44.23 45.15
6-Feb 45.21 45.60 44.56 45.02
And in da-Spirit of da-Boyz club and their House rules, we remain committed to being BOTH Long and Short at the same time so as to be READY and ABLE to meet-em at whichever lines they decide suits their fancy and at a time and/or day of their choosing (Ohhhhh BOYYYYOYZ, come, and, GET US, LOL)!?
In summary, YOU GO BOYZ and do your thing, but remember this, we got your Back, Front, and any other side you choose to expose as you paint dem dare pictures, I guess Boyz will be Boyz now won’t They, LOL!?
Good trades ALL,
nm
BONUS OE STUFF, Remember – the CLOSING price tells ALL in regard the OEPM factor!
OE key Pivot Points
R8, 49.89, 10%
R7, 49.32, 8.75%
R6, 48.75, 7.5%
R5, 48.18, 6.25%
R4, 47.62, 5% , Now our Primary Bounce Target but we’ll likely have to complete the “ST” bottom first!?
R3, 47.05, 3.75%
R2, 46.48, 2.5%, Pre-Launch Target into 11/12Feb?
R1, 45.92, 1.25%
Pivot, 45.35, 0.0% , Our Primary target to confirm Launch Mode, prices MUST Close and Stay above this line!
S1, 44.78, -1.25%
S2, 44.22, -2.5%, Should provide a Good Buy level?
S3, 43.65, -3.75%
S4, 43.08, -5% , tagged 23Jan and now Serious Support on a Closing basis
S5, 42.52, -6.25%
S6, 41.95, -7.5%, Absolutely Awesome to tag the -7.5% down marker so SOON!
S7, 41.38, -8.75%, Came within pennies of the S7 but I suspect we’ll NOT visit this level until June?
S8, 40.82, -10%
Most importantly, ARE you having FUN YET, I know I am!
FYI - we post EVERY trade in real time and in many cases post pre-trade sell and buy orders with trigger prices in anticipation of our 4cast! So ENJOY da-Show as we rat out da-Boyz club and have a little FUN while we're at it (I hope da-Boyz don't read dis-post otherwise they'll be GUN-ing for us - AGAIN, LOL!
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