FebOE Stuff?
Ok Boyz, now you’ve got me attention as you’ve Finally managed to Close-R above the OE Pivot, took you nine trading days but it’s a done deal as of Friday, or is it!?
Players, I’ve seen Dis-Gig before and I still refuse to BUY into More Up before we back-test and it will take ONLY ONE more day of closing above the OE Pivot, 45.35, to get me to Go ALL IN, let’s see if we’re right and the bottom falls out on Monday?
We finished the week with a 2:1 Net Short bias ratio on our OE Port, and control 12k shares short and 6k shares long. This week’s Up action took our short positions to over $-9.00 in losses that accumulated as da-Boyz orchestrated a 401k Markup Wave! Well done Boyz, as you made a run for the R1, 45.92, and even managed to close above the OE Pivot, 45.35, clap, clap, clap, most impressive Picture Painting dare Boyz, NOT!
The Good news is that we were able to trade several long/short intraday plays during the week as well as Unload some Core Long positions on Thursday/Friday that netted us a wkly gain of $16.38 bringing our OE total to $22.30 as we started the week with only $5.92 in gains! This more than offset the losses incurred on our Core Short positions, $-10.26 at the close on Friday, and UNDER-Scores the value of being BOTH long/short at the same time (down -10.26, up 16.38, net gain $6.12 for the wk, and da-GAME continues for TWO more weeks, Sweeeeeeeet)!
This week was ALL Good as the Q’s gained 3.6% on the week and the S&P500 gained 4.9%, but we suspect this short bias will serve us well next week as we expect pries to end the week lower by about -6% as we tag the S4, 43.08, and maybe even extend down to the S5, 42.52, before closing somewhere in da-Middle?
That said, this scary price action will complete our long awaited “W” bottom formation and we’ll configure our OE Port into a Serious Long Bias configuration? But in da-meantime its nothing but a TA, Chart, Fibs & Lies dissenting opinion as Most are prognosticating to Infinity and Beyond, Wrong answer Players, LOL!?
But Fear Not Happy Campers (well, you should be Happy as we just posted $16.38 in gains or about a 37% gain for the week), as we’ll be dare to guide you through an A-MAZE-ing venture put on by the one and only BOYZ club, WooHoo!?
Enjoy the weekend ALL, rest up, and be ready to DUP da-Bulls and Bears alike as da-GAME continues in Full_Court_Jester_Mode, YOU GO BOYZ!
Btw ALL, there are MANY Prognosticators and EVERYone has an opinion, good for them! But we be here to make YOU Money and could care less about being Right or Wrong, as a matter of fact, we be wrong plenty of times but being able to ascertain said "Wrong-ness" is our specialty, and being able to hedge said probable "Wrong" outcome is in our Charter! Therefore we go forward every day posting our trades in Real time,, many times in advance using price triggers, then add-em up each day, then tallying the Final Numbers to confess for ALL to see the Good , Bad, and da-Ugly! Now who amongst us can step forward to Challenge us in such an endeavor, ANYONE (and I'm not talking about After da-Fact BS, or posting Four different scenarios and conveniently forgetting the three dat didn't pan out and reposting the one da did, Palease), dats what I thought, Carry on Worthy Opponents but know that we be hear to rat out da-Boyz and have a little FUN while we do it, LOL!?
OE Pivot, 45.35, close on 18Jan
High, 45.88, up 1.2% (New High, 01Feb)
Low, 41.61, dn -8.2%
Close, 45.59, up 0.5%
Spread, 3.16
PM, 9.4%
We had a new High today, 45.88, 01Feb!
We start today with the following Open OE Port positions:
Short positions (expecting the Q's to go Down), controlling 12k shares
Feb42 puts at 0.565, (QUAD), bought long
Feb47 puts at 2.685, (QUAD), bought long
Feb44 calls at 1.545, (QUAD), sold short
Long positions (expecting the Q's to go Up), controlling 6k shares
Feb45 calls at 2.03, (QUAD), bought long
Feb48 puts at 3.00, (DOUBLE), sold short
This gives us Net Shortl da-Q's bias going into today and we'll use said Bias to play intraday Short plays to protect our Core positions and to post gains in an effort to minimize our pending losses on Open Positions.
These intraday plays are strategic in nature and will help us post profits that will off-set our losses incurred during this OE period as we HOLD Core positions indefinitely (see below side notes, Pending Gains/Loses)!
DCB (Dead Cat Bounce or NOT)
While the OVER-Whelming pundits, self-Proclaim-r’s, Messiah’s and/or “Prophet’s” of TA, Charts, Fibs & Lies have pretty much Baked in a DCB to Launch from these levels, we expect a Pre-DCB Discount wave to extend Down to the S5, 42.52, and maybe even see an extension to the S6, 41.95, intraday before WeakAsskie Shorts RUN for da-Border and take profits?
We posted Great gains yesterday as we traded in and out of Both puts and calls intraday and unloaded for same day profits. Hence our FebOE profits increased by $3.32 to $22.30 as we started the day with $18.98 in profits!
These posted profits are impressive but don’t forget we have many wounded soldiers still on the battlefield (pawns, bishops, and Knights) bleeding RED numbers everywhere, especially as we get closer to the OE and the delta shrinks up into a wie, sorry Michelle, small amount, see “Pending Gains/Losses” below!
Those gains are actually very good since most of our gains usually come a couple weeks into the OE period. Mostly just positioning our pawns, bishops, and knights during the first couple weeks so it’s a bonus to post modest profits already!
Btw…if you don’t play Chess then I suggest you STOP trading Immediately and go learn da-Game, da-Chess game dat is! But don’t stop dare, stay away until you can actually BEAT someone at Chess. Otherwise, as most players who read to learn vs. actual experience, you’ll have learned just enough to lose your SorryAsskie life Savings, Get-it, Got-it, GOOD!
Side note (Pending Gains/-Losses):
These gains/losses will post when positions are removed and/or expire!
Pending -Loss(s)
Feb45 calls (QUAD) at 2.03 – 1.42 (closing $) = -0.61 x 4 = $-2.44
Feb42 puts (QUAD) at 0.565 – 0.16 (closing $) = -0.405 x 4 = $-1.62
Feb47 puts (QUAD) at 2.685 – 1.78 (closing $) = -0.905 x 4 = $-3.62
Feb44 calls (QUAD) at 1.545 – 2.19 (closing $) = -0.645 x 4 = $-2.58
Pending Gain(s)
Feb48 puts (DOUB) at 3.06 – 2.48 (closing $) = 0.58 x 2 = $1.16
Net gain/-loss pending for above open positions at the close = $-9.10
This pending gain/-loss(s) is dependent on our ability to navigate this OE period with the utmost precision in regard to da-Boyz! Not to worry, we suspect da-OEPM factor will shed some light on da-Boyz and their Footprints of meaning (True intentions), LOL!?
Gain/-Loss History:
JanOE, $10.40 (up 20.2%, $10.40 into 51.85 = 20.2%)
FebOE, Pending
For your viewing pleasure da-OEPM 4cast-r says.....?
Date Open High Low Close
25-Jan 45.86 45.87 43.94 43.99
28-Jan 44.02 44.44 43.57 44.33
29-Jan 44.56 44.68 44.04 44.42
30-Jan 44.24 45.32 44.18 44.37
31-Jan 43.87 45.59 43.82 45.13
1-Feb 45.52 45.88 44.88 45.59
4cast
4-Feb 44.88 45.59 44.27 44.48
5-Feb 44.12 44.80 43.82 44.27
And in da-Spirit of da-Boyz club and their House rules, we remain committed to being BOTH Long and Short at the same time so as to be READY and ABLE to meet-em at whichever lines they decide suits their fancy and at a time and/or day of their choosing (Ohhhhh BOYYYYOYZ, come, and, GET US, LOL)!?
In summary, YOU GO BOYZ and do your thing, but remember this, we got your Back, Front, and any other side you choose to expose as you paint dem dare pictures, I guess Boyz will be Boyz now won’t They, LOL!?
Good trades ALL,
nm
BONUS OE STUFF, Remember – the CLOSING price tells ALL in regard the OEPM factor!
OE key Pivot Points
R8, 49.89, 10%
R7, 49.32, 8.75%
R6, 48.75, 7.5%
R5, 48.18, 6.25%
R4, 47.62, 5% , Now our Primary Bounce Target but we’ll likely have to complete the “W” bottom first!?
R3, 47.05, 3.75%
R2, 46.48, 2.5%, Pre-Launch Target into 25/28Jan?
R1, 45.92, 1.25%
Pivot, 45.35, 0.0% , Our Primary target to confirm Launch Mode, prices MUST Close and Stay above this line!
S1, 44.78, -1.25%
S2, 44.22, -2.5%
S3, 43.65, -3.75%
S4, 43.08, -5% , tagged 23Jan and now Serious Support on a Closing basis
S5, 42.52, -6.25%
S6, 41.95, -7.5%, Absolutely Awesome to tag the -7.5% down marker so SOON!
S7, 41.38, -8.75%, Came within pennies of the S7 but I suspect we’ll NOT visit this level until June?
S8, 40.82, -10%
Most importantly, ARE you having FUN YET, I know I am!
FYI - we post EVERY trade in real time and in many cases post pre-trade sell and buy orders with trigger prices in anticipation of our 4cast! So ENJOY da-Show as we rat out da-Boyz club and have a little FUN while we're at it (I hope da-Boyz don't read dis-post otherwise they'll be GUN-ing for us - AGAIN, LOL!
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