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Friday, 01/25/2008 10:26:52 AM

Friday, January 25, 2008 10:26:52 AM

Post# of 64
OT

INTRODUCTION

The title of this board, Peak Oil – Epochal Event of Our Lives, purposely includes the word epochal, meaning without parallel.

Why will Peak Oil be without parallel?

Look at past events in the Middle East, which interrupted the supply of oil throughout the world and especially in the United States. These disruptions were geopolitical events and were ultimately resolved with diplomacy.

Peak Oil, on the other hand, will be a geological event, something that mankind has never faced before and certainly cannot control. It will inevitably occur when mankind has consumed half of nature's oil, which is a finite resource.

Illustrated below is Hubbert's Curve, which shows the growth, peak, and decline of worldwide individual and regional wells. This sequence will occur while world population dramatically increases and as Asia, in particular, accelerates its industrialization.



Peak Oil will adversely affect many aspects of our lives. For example, over the last 100 years, gas powered engines have contributed to the discovery and expansion of the automobile and airplane industries. Recently the population of the United States reached 300 million and vehicles now total 225 million. Future population growth, with a corresponding increase in vehicles, will further deplete oil supplies.

Agriculture has changed from numerous labor and animal-intensive family farms to a machine-intensive industry controlled by corporations. Further, much of the increased productivity of farm soil emanates from petroleum-based fertilizers.

Farming and transportation are just two segments of society that must adjust to prospective oil declines. The critical question is how will our entire society adjust to a worldwide oil scarcity.

M. King Hubbert, a Shell geologist, predicted in 1956 that oil production in the United States would peak in 1970. In hindsight, it did. He also predicted worldwide oil reserves and oil production would peak between 2004 – 2010.

Mr. Hubbert's warning was given, yet it has been largely ignored. Oil discoveries and plentiful oil reserves in Alaska and the North Sea made many people complacent. In addition, new technologies were developed, so that oil was sucked up from the earth as if by giant straws. Although oil was abundant in the 1980's and 1990's, reserves in this century are in demonstrable decline.

China, in particular, recognizes the potential shortage of oil. It canvasses the world making oil deals to secure its energy future. It is also currently building 30 nuclear reactors and 7 hydroelectric dams to supplement its energy needs.

Sadly, the United States lingers behind. Its attitude seems to be that oil will always be abundant, probably because it has been in the past. Even with the dramatic crude oil price increases of the past three years, there still is a reluctance to confront this potential problem.

PURPOSE OF THIS BOARD

One purpose of this board is to provide I-Hub members with a repository of Peak Oil articles. Hopefully these will stimulate interest in the topic and I invite readers to post their thoughts.

Another important purpose of this board is to help people in preparing for or coping with the Peak Oil event. To this end, various links by category have been supplied below.

Good luck!

sumisu

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

GETTING READY FOR PEAK OIL & SUSTAINABLE LIVING

PEAK OIL READING LIST FROM JIM PUPLAVA

PEAK OIL SITES, BLOGS, & ORGANIZATIONS

NARRATIVE LINKS

M. KING HUBBERT

FSN/JIM PUPLAVA AUDIO INTERVIEWS

GOOGLE & OTHER VIDEOS

TRANSPORTATION CONSIDERATIONS

COMMUNITY SOLUTIONS & NEW URBANISM

OTHER NATIONS - STATUS FOR PEAK OIL

CHARTS OF INTEREST

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GETTING READY FOR PEAK OIL & SUSTAINABLE LIVING

A companion board titled "PEAK OIL - SUSTAINABLE LIVING" was spun off from this board to provide an archive of postings and sources of information which will aid the community to adopt and survive in a world of declining energy resources. Please review at: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=9881

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PEAK OIL READING LIST FROM JIM PUPLAVA
http://www.financialsense.com/resources/peakoil.html

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PEAK OIL SITES, BLOGS, & ORGANIZATIONS

Peak Oil Clock
http://www.energyandcapital.com/peakoilclock/

Peak Oil News & Message Boards
http://www.peakoil.com/

The Oil Drum
http://www.theoildrum.com/

Energy Bulletin: Peak Oil Primer and Links
http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas
http://www.peakoil.net

Dry Dipstick
http://www.drydipstick.com

Simmons & Company International
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches

National Petroleum Council
http://www.npc.org

Life After the Oil Crash
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

The Coming Global Oil Crisis
http://www.oilcrisis.com

The View From The Peak
http://www.theviewfromthepeak.net

Energy Balance
http://ergobalance.blogspot.com/2007/02/10-commandments-guidelines-for-humanity.html

Energy Outlook
http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/

Global Public Media - Public Service Broadcasting For A Post Carbon World
http://globalpublicmedia.com/

PeakOilDesign
http://peakoildesign.com/

Post Carbon Institute
http://www.postcarbon.org/

NEI Nuclear Notes
http://neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com/

PLENTY
http://www.plentymag.com/

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NARRATIVE LINKS

Another Nail in the Coffin of the Case Against Peak Oil, Matt Simmons, Nov 2007
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Another%20Nail%20in%20the%20Coffin.pdf

Megaprojects update: Just how close to Peak Oil are we? 10 18 07
Chris Skrebowski: Trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
http://www.aspousa.org/proceedings/houston/presentations/Chris%20Skrebowski%20megaprojects.pdf

Crisis, what energy crisis? Euan Mearns, The Oil Drum: Europe. 07 03 07
Over 50 links to Oil Drum articles from the past year are provided which combined provide a comprehensive overview of the issues surrounding peak oil and energy decline. http://www.energybulletin.net/31608.html

On the Precipice: Energy Security & Economic Stability on the Edge, Daniel Davis, 07 17 07
http://www.aspo-usa.com/assets/documents/Danny_Davis_On_the_Precipice.pdf

Evolutionary psychology and peak oil:
A Malthusian inspired "heads up" for humanity. by Dr. Michael E. Mills
http://www.drmillslmu.com/peakoil.htm

Peak oil: Facts converge with theory
http://tinyurl.com/2gtud4

11 incontrovertible truths of oil production & peak oil arguments by PeakEngineer, 05 23 07
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19902674

Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot:Population, the Elephant in the Room, © Copyright 2007, Paul Chefurka
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html

CRUDE OIL
Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production, GAO Report, 03 29 07
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf

DIE OFF - a population crash resource page
http://www.dieoff.com/index.html

PRESIDENT JIMMY CARTER

http://tinyurl.com/srbdp

Portland, Oregon City Council unanimously passed a resolution to create a peak oil task force - 05 10 06
http://www.portlandpeakoil.org/

Testimony before the Australian Senate by Dr. Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior expert employed by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), 07 11 06
http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/commttee/S9515.pdf

The Hirsch Report - February 2005
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10310387

The Financial Sense Energy Resource Page
http://www.financialsense.com/energy/main.htm

Financial Sense Big Picture Archive
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/2006.html

OIL: A TRAVELOGUE OF ADDICTION by Chicago Tribune, 07 29 06
(Suggested viewing: Open link and click on Watch documentary (left-hand column)).
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/specials/broadband/chi-oilsafari-html,0,7894741.htmlstory

Peak Oil: Gas Prices, Supply Depletion & Energy Crisis: From NewCulture.org, 07 27 06
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMQd5nGEkr4&mode=related&search

Exploring emotional reactions to peak oil
by Kathy McMahon
http://www.energybulletin.net/19718.html

Denial Of Energy Crisis Is A Conditioned Response
by By Dave Wheelock
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25561271

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M. KING HUBBERT

Hubbert peak theory
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

A Tribute To M. King Hubbert
http://www.mkinghubbert.com/

Outlook for Fuel Reserves
http://www.mkinghubbert.com/files/hubbert_1974.pdf

Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels by M. King Hubbert, 1956
Published on 8 Mar 2006 by Energy Bulletin. Archived on 8 Mar 2006.
http://www.energybulletin.net/13630.html

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FSN/JIM PUPLAVA AUDIO INTERVIEWS

Financial Sense Newshour (FSN): Richard Heinberg Audio Interview by Jim Puplava; 09 22 07. "Peak Everything: Waking up to the Century of Declines"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2007/Heinberg.html

FSN: Matthew Simmons Audio Interview by Jim Puplava; 08 18 07, "All the Canaries Have Stopped Singing"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2007/Simmons.html

FSN: Matthew R. Simmons Audio Interview; 11 25 06, Critique of the CERA Report
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Simmons.html

FSN: Richard Heinberg Audio Interview; 10 21 06
"The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Heinberg.html

FSN: Matthew R. Simmons Audio Interview; 09 30 06
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Simmons.html

FNS:Paul Kruger, Author Audio Interview; 06 03 06
"Alternative Energy Resources: The Quest for Sustainable Energy"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Kruger.html

FSN: Peter Tertzakian Audio Interview; 04 15 06
"A Thousand Barrels A Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Tertzakian.html

FSN: The Last Oil Crisis; 03 04 06
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2006/0304.html

FSN: Energy Roundtable - Jim Puplava, James Howard Kunstler, Richard Heinberg (Audio Discussion )- 02 18 06
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/roundtable/2006/0218.html

FSN:"Zapata" George Blake Audio Interview; 02 04 06
"Everything But The Kitchen Sink!"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Blake.html

FSN:"Energy, The Big Story of 2005"
(Select December 24 - Part 1)
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/2005.html

FSN: James Howard Kunstler Audio Interview; 10 01 05 -"The Long Emergency"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Kunstler.html

FSN: Matthew R. Simmons Audio Interview; 08 06 05 -"Twilight In The Desert"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Simmons.html

FSN: Kenneth S. Deffeyes Audio Interview; 05 21 05 -
"Beyond Oil: The View From Huppert's Peak"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Deffeyes.html

FSN: Michael T. Klare, Audio Interview; 01 15 05 -
"Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Petroleum Dependency"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Klare.html

FSN: Matt Savinar Audio Interview; 10 23 2004-
"The Oil Age Is Over: What to Expect as the World Runs Out of Cheap Oil, 2005-2050"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Savinar.html

FSN: Julian Darley, Author, Audio Interview; 09 25 2004-
"High Noon for Natural Gas: The New Energy Crisis"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Darley.html

FSN: Richard Heinberg Audio Interviews; 08 07 04 -"Powerdown" & 02 23 03 - The Party's Over
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Heinberg.html

FSN: Stephen Leeb Audio Interview; 05 08 04 -
"The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself--and Profit--From the Coming Energy Crisis" (co-author with Donna Leeb)
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Leeb.html

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GOOGLE & OTHER AUDIOS AND VIDEOS

Video: A High-Risk Barrel, September 28, 2007
http://novakeo.com/?p=1054&jal_no_js=true&poll_id=10

Crude Impact 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIps6Jd6sT4

Matt Savinar - Coast to Coast, 10/07
http://klrietmann.bingodisk.com/bingo/public/Savinarc2c111.mp3

A Crude Awakening
http://tinyurl.com/yp88uu

Matthew Simmons on Peak Oil, ASPO Conference at Boston University 10 27 06
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-429585738009344102&q=peak+oil'

Peak Oil, Richard Heinberg, 09/11/06
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2141508903056009420

The Long Emergency: Surviving Catastophies of the 21st Century, 10 30 05
http://tinyurl.com/2g6p35

Real Oil Crisis - 11 24 05 (Video Presentation)
http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1515141.htm

The End of Suburbia (Video Promo)
http://tinyurl.com/yqztov

Radio Netherlands: The Age of Petroleum draws to a close
http://download.omroep.nl/rnw/smac/cms/earthbeat_en_071122_44_1kHz.mp3

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TRANSPORTATION CONSIDERATIONS

A 10% Reduction in America's Oil Use in Ten to Twelve Years
An Overlooked, Practical, and Affordable Approach Using Mature Existing Technology by Alan S. Drake, May 2006 • Rev. October 2006
http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2006-05a.htm

Electrification of transportation as a response to peaking of world oil production by Alan S. Drake 12 19 05 in Light Rail Now
http://www.energybulletin.net/14492.html

Public Transport Industry Issues
http://www.lightrailnow.org/industry_issues.htm#electrification

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COMMUNITY SOLUTIONS & NEW URBANISM

The Community Solution
http://www.communitysolution.org/

WORLD CHANGING
http://www.worldchanging.com/about/

How to Wean a Town Off Fossil Fuels
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/005135.html

A Community Solution to Peak Oil: An interview with Megan Quinn http://www.energybulletin.net/5721

Sustain Lane | The Healthy, Sustainable Living Community Resource
http://www.sustainlane.com/

Culture Change
http://culturechange.org/cms/index.php

Communities, Refuges, and Refuge-Communities by Zachary Nowak
http://www.energybulletin.net/21172.html

Karavans - Moving Toward a New World of Self-Sufficiency, Sustainability, and Genuine Community
http://www.karavans.com/peakoil.html

New Urbanism
http://www.newurbanism.org/

The New Urbanisn
http://www.newurbannews.com/AboutNewUrbanism.html

Online NewsHour - New Urbanism
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/newurbanism/

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OTHER NATIONS - STATUS FOR PEAK OIL

Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for peak oil than the US by Dmitry Orlov, 12 04 06
http://energybulletin.net/23259.html

The power of community: How Cuba survived peak oil
by Megan Quinn, 02 25 06
http://www.energybulletin.net/13171.html

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CHARTS OF INTEREST

Source and worthy explanation of charts at:http://www.peakoil.com/sample/













PEAK OIL #board-6609
PEAK OIL - SUSTAINABLE LIVING #board-9881
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